geoff_morphini wrote:

I think the biggest problem is in the human mind. We don't process probability in our brains very well, even though mathematically probabilities are easy to understand. The problem lies in the base line.  We just can't seem to understand the actual relevance of a probability because, at the level of the denominator, our brains are constantly zooming in and out all over the place. 

The other thing that people seem blind to is how the duration of exposure to a risk massively amplifies the chance of it happening to you. If you build your house at the top of a cliff or next to a river and spend your life there, you are probably at greater risk of a disaster than visiting the rim of an active volcano for five minutes. But our brains don't see it that way.  So we build cities on active fault lines and the flanks of massive volcanoes and feel quite at home with it until one day, we suddenly don't.

 oldviolin wrote:
I could see you referred to as a heterogenius.

 KurtfromLaQuinta wrote:

Crunchy peanut butter

 ScottFromWyoming wrote:

IKR?

 oldviolin wrote:

If the people around last time had only kept better records...

 oldviolin wrote: I'm a confident heterogeneous.

 geoff_morphini wrote:
What an interesting word. I thought I knew but still looked it up. I wasn't off by much, lol.

Anyhow this is fascinating. Also I wonder if there are studies estimating if or how magnetic pole shifting affects additional stresses. Seems it would be really difficult to measure.

 Red_Dragon wrote: I’m friends with one of the authors (won’t name so their good name isn’t tarnished by my association). It is legitimate science. I know where a lot of their data come from and they are solid studies. I downloaded the article and now have a reading assignment.

Personally, I don’t like the public message in this. It is a probabilistic analysis and is not stating that the really big one is overdue. We still don’t understand how a fault reacts to heterogeneous stresses. 

Be prepared

Stress on San Andreas Fault reaches highest levels in 1,000 years as scientists await next ‘major rupture’

 666 wrote: Great idea!

Hi Bill,
I really love your work for the RP-Station and the fresh AlannahWind,
any Chance for an Video-Log with a Short Tour Like „a working day of Bill“ ?
My wife and I are really curious, and we do Not want TO disturb you by visiting for real 😊

Myco

 Red_Dragon wrote:
Mulling a New Mexico/West Texas trip for next spring as well. Though Mrs Miser doesn't seem to be too enthusiastic about it right now. May have to "settle" for Smokey Mtn wildflowers instead. 

 Red_Dragon wrote:

Last year's eclipse trip (first week of April) the endless miles of flowers on the way to Austin was a highlight of the trip.

 KurtfromLaQuinta wrote:

Baja is super green/lush right now. So the purple flowers are about 3 weeks behind, should be perfect timing.  It's really cool to see the desert landscape transform to vibrant colors.  At our place the humming birds are out in full force right now (also the scorpions...).

 islander wrote: One never knows about the flowers.
Depends on the rain we get during the Winter/ early Spring.

 islander wrote:

We're planning a West Texas wildflower trip in April.

 KurtfromLaQuinta wrote:

Really looking forward to our drive south this year. The sand verbena should be in full bloom, the desert hills will be purple.

 KurtfromLaQuinta wrote:
Cool. I figured it was somewhere in your neck of the woods. My friend said it was one of the coolest places they'd played.

 Proclivities wrote: Under 50 miles away from me, just outside of the high desert town of Yucca Valley.
I've been there a few times.
When the shows are inside... way too much volume for me. The outside stage is way better IMHO.
I did see Son Volt inside... and it was great.

Some really famous people have performed there. 
Even Paul McCartney a few years back. 

I saw some photos on Instagram of a place called Pappy & Harriet's, in Pioneertown, CA, posted by some folks I know whose band played there. Looks like an interesting and fun spot. Is that somewhere near you Kurt (from LaQ)?