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kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: May 18, 2021 - 9:25pm

So I just bailed as this new slide slides.  Still up around 30%.  Still not bad for a month.   Coulda' got out at 98% but who knows the future for certain ?  

Now to see what the new bottom is.  My grub stake is intact and I have some extra to pay for the car repairs.  I'll call round one of this little experiment a success.

Hey, steely, if you're still up % wise, now is the time to bail if you haven't already.
westslope

westslope Avatar

Location: BC sage brush steppe


Posted: May 17, 2021 - 5:12pm

The Financial Times tells me that impersonators of Elon Musk have fleeced more than US$2 M in cryptocurrency scams.  Americans have lost more than $80 M in scams between October 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021.  Median 'investor' loss is $1,900 per person.

Bitcoin, now at US$44,000.  It was at $66K a month ago. 

FTC Data Shows Huge Spike in Cryptocurrency Investment Scams
May 17, 2021
New data spotlight points to more than ten-fold increase in reported losses in last 12 months



And if I recall correctly, Tesla is no longer accepting Bitcoins as payment.   

Pass the popcorn.
Isabeau

Isabeau Avatar

Location: sou' tex
Gender: Female


Posted: May 14, 2021 - 2:45pm

Invisible Monopoly Money.

Next?
kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: May 14, 2021 - 5:19am

 westslope wrote:

"resistance" in technical analysis (TA) is based on some kind of exponential or moving average which are supposed to capture investor sentiment.  Example (but one):   where 50 day moving average and a 200 day moving average cross will identify a "resistance" level.

Before you dismiss this out of hand, there are lots of well educated, smart people who either trade exclusively based on TA or use it to supplement a more fundamental analysis approach to investing and trading.

Don't like it?  Well, there is always the Soviet central committee approach to managing an economy......  To understand what enlightened politically appointed committees can do to an otherwise performing economy see the radical Neo-Marxist populist regimes in South America and Africa.   They are world class, frankly the 'greatest' when it comes to destroying social-economic wealth.



You are correct about defining resistance.  I used to know this stuff in detail back when I was doing metals.  Oversold and undersold, and much more stuff.  I have pretty much forgotten how to articulate it, but retain the understanding of the concepts.  As I mentioned I do look at the curves, read tidbits, look for patterns.  Unlike metals, this is more gut than anything else tempered by my existing knowledge and experience from metals.  Unlike commodities, crypto is not consumed.  It has no material use or need.  Supply is somewhat fixed.  Mining it is not an easy thing to do and things like forks happen such as Bitcoin Cash from Bitcoin which affect supply and demand.  Again, I have forgotten so much in a way to be able to articulate it properly.

Yes, it is a casino. My eyes are wide open.  As I have mentioned earlier, it does not seem to react as drastically and as quickly as metals do (did) with a mid east crisis or some other sudden geopolitical events or financial event, like changes in interest rates.  Musk did knock the snot out of cryptos and they did react.  I still went to bed that night and woke up to much lower numbers, but still 60% up from my entry point.  I was a couple hundred bucks away from 100% Saturday night, early Sunday.  Since then the curves are finding a new bottom range, yet still sloping upwardsish when looked at over a longer time period.  

Speaking of going to sleep when things are happening, unlike metals, you can buy and sell 24 /7 .  You don't have to wait for your local market to open, which is usually too late even if you have formal buy and sell orders in place.  FOREX also has a big impact on metal prices just simply based on the worth of your local currency.   Other markets are open when the USA's is not.  

But resistance points have been broken, substantially.  The retreat is also about as much down as it was up, so in my thinking the reaction has been proportional.  I'm not overly worried at present.  I'm going to let things ride for now.  Of my four choices to work with, my two picks are still the best of the four.

And going forward, the green guilt trip thing will fade away as those who are concerned about that aspect will soon be gone if not already.

Eh ?  wtf do I know ?  This is an experiment for me.  And most importantly it has been low stress as was hoped for.
black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: May 13, 2021 - 8:45am

 westslope wrote:

Better late than never.  Funny how Elon Musk seems to have a lot of those moments.   

Wish he would do some more research before opening his big, rambling mouth but what the heck, eh?   American needs more misinformation.  



I don't blame the tweeter,
as much as the tweetees who listten.
westslope

westslope Avatar

Location: BC sage brush steppe


Posted: May 13, 2021 - 8:16am

 R_P wrote:
Musk says Tesla no longer plans to accept payment in bitcoin
Chief executive goes from evangelist to critic, citing environmental impact of cryptocurrency

Better late than never.  Funny how Elon Musk seems to have a lot of those moments.   

Wish he would do some more research before opening his big, rambling mouth but what the heck, eh?   American needs more misinformation.  

westslope

westslope Avatar

Location: BC sage brush steppe


Posted: May 13, 2021 - 8:15am

"resistance" in technical analysis (TA) is based on some kind of exponential or moving average which are supposed to capture investor sentiment.  Example (but one):   where 50 day moving average and a 200 day moving average cross will identify a "resistance" level.

Before you dismiss this out of hand, there are lots of well educated, smart people who either trade exclusively based on TA or use it to supplement a more fundamental analysis approach to investing and trading.

Don't like it?  Well, there is always the Soviet central committee approach to managing an economy......  To understand what enlightened politically appointed committees can do to an otherwise performing economy see the radical Neo-Marxist populist regimes in South America and Africa.   They are world class, frankly the 'greatest' when it comes to destroying social-economic wealth.

rgio

rgio Avatar

Location: West Jersey
Gender: Male


Posted: May 13, 2021 - 6:55am

 kurtster wrote:

On your first.  You forget about what Soros has done in the past with real currency.


Soros exploited bad policy and management over days/weeks/months.   Elon tweets.

If the Right liked what Soros did with his money (ie Koch Bros.), he'd be an icon of free markets and capitalism.

kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: May 13, 2021 - 6:05am

 rgio wrote:

The idea that any one person (outside maybe a head of state declaring war or imposing massive taxes) can "fuck" with a currency and have it move 10%+ overnight suggests there is little intrinsic value to the currency. 

Shit, he told you as much on national TV over the weekend.  Distributed ledgers will prevail, but the idea that any one crypto will redefine commerce is a long way off.  It's a casino.  You felt like you were splitting 10's and doubling your money with face cards, only for the dealer to pull blackjack.  Tulips anyone?

The danger with Elon is that he has done everything in business.  He's built the most valuable car company in the world while reinventing transportation (underground) and giving rides to NASA while also plotting a global satellite internet and going to Mars.  (That was a fucked up thing to type... }    He's bored.  Being on TV may have created an attention monster.  A guy with his money and lack of respect for social norms can be dangerous.  Your silver dollar analogy is a good one.    Let's hope he stops at dollars.

On your first.  You forget about what Soros has done in the past with real currency.

rgio

rgio Avatar

Location: West Jersey
Gender: Male


Posted: May 13, 2021 - 5:23am

 kurtster wrote:


That will explain the current sudden drops in crypto.  Bitcoin itself has suffered the worst of the majors.  It has dropped below 50 k and is overall down 10 k or 17% for the past month, at least.  I did predict that Bitcoin would drop down into the 40's and become range bound for the foreseeable future.  We'll see how that works out.  So far Ethereum is still up 80% in the past month and Bitcoin Cash is up 90% despite this pronouncement.

At this point in time, I think that Musk is fucking with us, to see how gullible we are and to find out how much influence he is directly capable of.

The modern day equivalent of a rich man during the Depression throwing a silver dollar on the ground on a street corner and watching the fight to be the one to get it, for nothing more than their personal amusement.  At least Musk is up to something beyond personal amusement, I hope.

The idea that any one person (outside maybe a head of state declaring war or imposing massive taxes) can "fuck" with a currency and have it move 10%+ overnight suggests there is little intrinsic value to the currency.  Shit, he told you as much on national TV over the weekend.  Distributed ledgers will prevail, but the idea that any one crypto will redefine commerce is a long way off.  It's a casino.  You felt like you were splitting 10's and doubling your money with face cards, only for the dealer to pull blackjack.  Tulips anyone?

The danger with Elon is that he has done everything in business.  He's built the most valuable car company in the world while reinventing transportation (underground) and giving rides to NASA while also plotting a global satellite internet and going to Mars.  (That was a fucked up thing to type... }    He's bored.  Being on TV may have created an attention monster.  A guy with his money and lack of respect for social norms can be dangerous.  Your silver dollar analogy is a good one.    Let's hope he stops at dollars.
kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: May 12, 2021 - 8:42pm

 R_P wrote:
Musk says Tesla no longer plans to accept payment in bitcoin
Chief executive goes from evangelist to critic, citing environmental impact of cryptocurrency


That will explain the current sudden drops in crypto.  Bitcoin itself has suffered the worst of the majors.  It has dropped below 50 k and is overall down 10 k or 17% for the past month, at least.  I did predict that Bitcoin would drop down into the 40's and become range bound for the foreseeable future.  We'll see how that works out.  So far Ethereum is still up 80% in the past month and Bitcoin Cash is up 90% despite this pronouncement.

At this point in time, I think that Musk is fucking with us, to see how gullible we are and to find out how much influence he is directly capable of.

The modern day equivalent of a rich man during the Depression throwing a silver dollar on the ground on a street corner and watching the fight to be the one to get it, for nothing more than their personal amusement.  At least Musk is up to something beyond personal amusement, I hope.
R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: May 12, 2021 - 8:10pm

Musk says Tesla no longer plans to accept payment in bitcoin
Chief executive goes from evangelist to critic, citing environmental impact of cryptocurrency
kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: May 10, 2021 - 5:52am

 rgio wrote:


Measured how? 

Resistance is a point where (some) investors assume the risk/reward has turned against them and sell.  


There are generally trends that support prior pressure at resistance levels. If you look at the one month chart for Ether, there are no consistent resistance points / dips in the trend. If 4,000 was a major one, what's the next resistance point?



It's more psychological than anything else, imo.  There are so many charts and notions about the charts.  Patterns and whatnot.  Head and shoulder curves, whatever.  Not as relevant with crypto, imo.  It is more about breaking new upper limits, period.  The only thing that seems to stop the upward trend is bad news regarding threatened regulatory events.  But what do I know in the end ?  Not much.  Bitcoin itself and Dogecoin notwithstanding as they are more outliers, imo.

I would say that $5k is the next resistance point for Ethereum.

I have a live action candlestick chart that I was watching last night when it broke 4k.  I had it set to by the hour.  I saw it touch 4000.00, then drop to 3998. 96, and back up to 3999.99 for about 15 minutes.  Finally it hit 4000.00 even, dropped a couple of cents, bounced around within a couple of bucks under 4, then hit it even again and finally zoomed up to around 4032, IIRC.  The volume at that point was pretty substantial, too.  The new high is now 4137 and it is presently at around 4135 - 4130.  

$4132 as I hit submit.

rgio

rgio Avatar

Location: West Jersey
Gender: Male


Posted: May 10, 2021 - 5:22am

 kurtster wrote:

Ethereum just broke through a major resistance point of $4000 USD.




Measured how? 

Resistance is a point where investors assume the risk/reward has turned against them and sell.  There are generally trends that support prior pressure at resistance levels.  If you look at the one month chart for Ether, there are no consistent resistance points / dips in the trend.  If 4,000 was a major one, what's the next resistance point?


kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: May 9, 2021 - 8:22pm

Ethereum just broke through a major resistance point of $4000 USD.


kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: May 8, 2021 - 10:18pm

 westslope wrote:

Absolutely.  

I just counted the Bitcoin SPAM in the gmail SPAM folder.  16 out of 88.  18% of the SPAM concerned Bitcoin.

If that does not indicate a bubble, what does?  



There is zero crypto spam in my spam folder and I actually own some.  Ironic, eh ?  Better you than me ;)

So I finally played that Bloomberg vid.  Saw it wasn't an article so it took some time to get to.

I see Giustra's points, to a degree.  I agree that Bitcoin has affected the gold market and imo, actually stabilized it.  It is far less volatile than it has traditionally been in the past.

I think that we are living in a bubble driven economy quite frankly.  Giustra is right about speculation and momentum though in regards to crypto in general.  Those are drivers in many commodities however.  

I dunno.  My involvement is a gut feeling / opportunity / timing thing.  I think / hope that I got in at a relatively safe low point where there is still an opportunity for large % increases with the two that I settled on (Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash) as opposed to Bitcoin which is pretty much range bound for the foreseeable future.  And I think that others may see that as well.  Litecoin is a waste of time presently, imo.

As far as hype is concerned, I think much if not most is focused on Dogecoin, which I only recently became aware of.  Sorry, not for me.  Pure speculation at this point, imho.  Too easily manipulated by hype. 

So I went and looked at my receipts for a timeline.  I first went into this on March 22.  Dumped Bitcoin April 20 on the plus, nicely.  Up 50% actually.  Dumped Litecoin April 25 for a slight loss, though still nicely up overall with the proceeds from Bitcoin.  So since this readjustment during that week in April, I doubled my holdings in the two remaining and I'm now up roughly 75% in the past three weeks.  Barring some crazy, I might expect to see 100% within the next two weeks.  Then comes the first crossroads.

rgio laid it out pretty well below.  If I take back the initial, even though I reduce my gain potential accordingly, I have made money with money and have established a grub stake of sorts in short order.  That was a goal.  And it is still all gain going forward.  I must say that the wife is thinking the same way, too.



Steely_D

Steely_D Avatar

Location: Biscayne Bay
Gender: Male


Posted: May 8, 2021 - 4:59pm

 westslope wrote:

Absolutely.  

I just counted the Bitcoin SPAM in the gmail SPAM folder.  16 out of 88.  18% of the SPAM concerned Bitcoin.

If that does not indicate a bubble, what does?  



I think it indicates, like the Nigerian Prince scams, the existence of at least one person/group that is emailing anyone to see if they can profit off someone's naïveté. 
westslope

westslope Avatar

Location: BC sage brush steppe


Posted: May 8, 2021 - 1:55pm

 Steely_D wrote:

Bitcoin millionaires are only that when they cash out for USD/Euros/etc. Until then, they're just swagger.


Absolutely.  

I just counted the Bitcoin SPAM in the gmail SPAM folder.  16 out of 88.  18% of the SPAM concerned Bitcoin.

If that does not indicate a bubble, what does?  

Steely_D

Steely_D Avatar

Location: Biscayne Bay
Gender: Male


Posted: May 8, 2021 - 1:49pm

 westslope wrote:

Funny how all successful speculators in big zero-sum games — often asset bubbles — end up in cash.  


Bitcoin millionaires are only that when they cash out for USD/Euros/etc. Until then, they're just swagger.

westslope

westslope Avatar

Location: BC sage brush steppe


Posted: May 8, 2021 - 8:45am

Funny how all successful speculators in big zero-sum games — often asset bubbles — end up in cash.  Says a lot about the success of fiat currency and monetary management by modern central banks.  

It also hints at the strongly at the notion of taking gains earlier than later.  
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