kcar wrote:
That's partially true.  We can't look at the economy as something we can wholly control.  It's a system and if left at least partially unregulated, it will evolve.  Part of that evolution is finding lower costs, and that means new labor markets.  As for the political role in moving jobs abroad...free trade agreements, theoretically, are meant to take the politics out of the economics.  Yes free trade allowed for it, but it wasn't a politician who moved jobs to China, India....but business owners, like Trump.  The voters have elected the very person who has taken away their jobs; as I've said before, voter are asking the right questions, but Trump was the wrong answer.

As for the future, things will not get better for the low skilled worker.  Last week Amazon announced its new Go, checkout free store. The obvious business advantage is you have less labor costs (no need for checkout employees)...this is not a new technology, but something that should have arrived 20 years ago with RFID.  Now that it's here it will spread throughout retail.  Consumption comprises about 2/3 of the US GDP/Economy.  So retail is obviously important for its growth…and jobs.  We’ve already dealt with the massive offshoring of manufacturing, customer service/tech support, and even accounting and finance jobs.  Now our technology is bringing us check-out free store, driverless cars & trucks, robotics to handle the warehouse and stocking work…the future doesn’t look bright for the unskilled US worker.

Regardless of his past business dealings, the question for Trump is: Can he really bring jobs back to the US?   I hate to admit it, but perhaps Trump is right (in a roundabout way), and we need to impose significant tariffs to bring back jobs to the US.  Yes, that will increase prices, lead to inflation and hurt profits, but if it creates more domestic production, and niche industries, perhaps these job gains can offset the impending job losses as a result of new technology?

 kurtster wrote: 
no problem, sometimes you just don't know if you should shreik like a crazy person or cry like a baby
I got one that shows the destruction, I worked for an Anheuser-Busch beer distributor from 1977 to 2015
At our peak we sold 1.4 million cases in one year and was number one in market share at 45%
My last year we sold about 15,000 cases under a million but we had 68% market share, 
I always count my blessings because before working there I was in retail and bought beer from 8 distributors, when I retired there were only 2 of us and both are struggling 

 

Skydog and kurtster, I'm gonna try to keep this brief and avoid links to news articles and papers. 

Your Dec. 8 posts are outstanding. You both have voiced the frustration and anger that people have to live with every day in places like Cleveland and Detroit. Hard-working, honest people have seen their communities and jobs fade away through no fault of their own. They have a right to be fed up with both political parties and the political status quo.

I have some personal experience with the kind of economic changes you two write about. I lived for a while on the south side of Bethlehem, PA—quite close to Bethlehem Steel while the mill was still running. I saw the giant blue gas flame from the mill and heard its rumbles (like the one 15 seconds into Dire Straits' "Telegraph Road" all the time. South side was dying then and you could see the poverty and remains of closed businesses all 'round. Everybody knew that the mill was going to close fairly soon and there was a sense of despair and anger. Mack Trucks and other businesses were pulling out of the area. Why couldn't someone come up with a way to save the mill or start new jobs in the Lehigh Valley? 

I don't agree with those who acted on their frustrations to vote for Trump. As I've posted here numerous times, I think this guy is a disaster for the working-class people in economically struggling areas. Remember when African-Americans would riot in their neighborhoods and destroy their own businesses and homes due to a mob anger, say in Watts or Detroit ('67) or South LA or (recently) Baltimore? I kept hearing people in my neighborhoods say "My God, they're just making things worse for themselves." Well, the way I see it the working-class people who voted for Trump have just done the same thing. 

Briefly: to me, Trump is totally unprepared and lacking in serious, coherent policies especially when it comes to bringing working-class jobs back. But more importantly, 

Donald Trump is mentally ill. Seriously. There is a strong chance that Trump will badly damage the US—economically, politically and socially. 

kurtster wrote: 

"We are all seeing the wrecking ball being assembled and most of these people I have referred to above are cheering.  But not for the reasons being offered up by the losing side which is still in complete denial that these unwashed should not get what they want for once, instead of never, like it has been for the years since NAFTA."

 Sir, I've lived in Washington DC for 20+ years and have mingled with the "elites" you've written about. I've NEVER heard anyone in such a group or anyone in this town speak disparagingly of people in places like Cleveland, Detroit, Bethlehem, etc. Many of the people in power I've known here came from working- and middle-class backgrounds. They're quite aware that Washington runs on the taxes and electoral participation of people like you and Skydog. They're not ignoring or dismissing you. Please consider that Nixon was one of the first Republican politicians who successfully used the politics of resentment to come to power (he did the same thing to become president of his class in college). The GOP have been screaming about arrogant elites crapping on the Common Man for years and to me it's a one long goddamned lie. The GOP talks a good game but it's all about helping the top 1%. 

I'm convinced that most Democratic politicians and many Republican ones would like to improve the lives of people in struggling areas. The parties disagree on how to go about that task. Part of the problem is that government can only do so much to support an industry like steel manufacturing against foreign competitors or changes in technology. I think that both parties should try to forge cooperative efforts between government and private companies to boost training and adaptability to changing business conditions. Germany is successful with such ventures.

Frankly, I've never heard any serious plans from Republicans in Congress about helping regions or industries or people at certain income levels; they're all about tax cuts for the rich that are supposed to trickle down and create jobs for everyone else. It was b*||$h!^ theory in the late 1800s when it first got invented and it's still BS. 

Thanks for reading. Good luck to you both. We'll see what Trump brings to the country. I have zero confidence in him and the GOP.  

 Skydog wrote: 
I've seen the same thing here in Cleveland over the past 45 years I've lived here.  Northern Ohio had more car plants than Michigan.  Pounded the streets for ten years a hundred miles a day driving a coffee truck, serving factories that made everything you can think of from 1973 to 1984.  From White Motors (trucks) to Gould Inc., torpedoes, to the US Steel plants in Cleveland and Lorain, the Collinwood ConRail locomotive shop, fabled Lincoln Electric,  the Republic Steel yards that were the setting for The Deerhunter ( I drove by the house on the hill side over looking the steel plant in the beginning of the movie everyday for years and have eaten at the restaurant where so much of the interior dialogue was shot), small machine shops that still cut gears with overhead pulley and leather strap drives with the machinists being mostly Eastern European WW II refugees, DP's as they were known, but in a kindly sense, not the pejorative sense. Sherwin-Williams.  American Greetings. The DayGlo paint factory.    Man those guys were colorful and did glow in the dark when they came out to the truck.  Locktite.  Cleveland Twist Drill.  I dragged a food cart through a foundry dodging molten iron spilling from the Bulls pouring into the molds on rotary casting machines.  19th Century technology still being used in the twilight of the 20th.  The list is endless.  Many well known names.  Hell I even went to the factory that made TV trays that was in the movie Light of Day .  Stamping plants where you could tell how long someone had worked there by how many fingers were missing.   A Blue Collar life with Blue Collar salt of the earth people of all kinds and colors through my 20's.  Even had a Merchant Marine card.  Everything used to be made in Cleveland.  During it's prime during WW II through the 60's there were more machine shops in one area in the Cleveland Akron metropolitan area than anywhere else in the world.  

Now half the car plants are gone and a hundred little shops that made assembly parts for the cars.  Of the list of companies I mentioned above only Lincoln Electric, Sherwin-Williams, American Greetings and the US Steel Plant in Lorain remain.  So many others are gone.

Here is what a foundry Bull is just for S & G's ...

 

It has since gone to Hell.  It would be identical to Detroit if it weren't for the Cleveland Clinic and our two other fine hospitals.

Once all Democrat, through Hell and back.  Loyal to the end.  Since 1970, the area has lost so much.  Nothing to speak of is made here anymore.  People have changed, too.  Everybody is sick and tired of seeing stuff disappear right before their eyes and being lied to about why it is happening.  The whole Rust Belt has the same story.  Thanks for going this far, but I tell my little story to share my backgound of first hand experiences to illustrate that experience can be used for argumentative support instead of citing some expert or main stream media source or a blogger with a website for the only allowable credibility.

It's a dichotomy.  Looking at this map I shared in another thread, it shows county by county the voter shift by county and party from 2012 to 2016.  I looked at my district, Ohio 13, where Ryan, the guy who challenged Pelosi the other day, took his district by a 3 to 1 margin, still elected Trump overwhelmingly with changes to the red by Akron/Summit County 7%, Portage County 15%, Mahoning County (Y-Town) 25% and Trumball County 29%.  The last two on the Ohio / Pa border.  Trump flipped two of those counties from 2012, tied in another and in Akron came within 5 points in flipping it.  Yet Ryan still won yuge.

These are the people who are tired of being bullshitted and agreed with what the hell do you have to lose ?  Do check out the map.  Its most insightful to see where things broke down and see all the places in the Heartland that flipped and said enough is enough.  From Western Pa to Wisconsin.  There is the difference this election.  The places where everyone was told that they cling to their guns and religion and are to be ignored and shit upon from 2008 onward.  That won't sit well with most on the losing side, but it is one explanation that should be considered meaningful.  We are all seeing the wrecking ball being assembled and most of these people I have referred to above are cheering.  But not for the reasons being offered up by the losing side which is still in complete denial that these unwashed should not get what they want for once, instead of never, like it has been for the years since NAFTA.  I know a lot of these people.  I am one of these people.  And I do not own a gun or go to church.

Pardon the ramble.  Hope it made some sense and was even a tad germane.  If not, oh well, at least I got to kill some time while ripping an LP.

kcar, explanations don't work anymore, I bought into the moderate center-left views for the last 25 years but it just don't work for me anymore
I voted for President this past election for the first time since 1992 to stop Trump via a vote for Hillary, now I've had enough and if the kids want a Bernie type democratic-socialism then okay, they are going to be here longer than me

and it's not just Detroit, it's also Flint, Saginaw, Pontiac, Jackson, Ypsilanti, Albion, Milan, Monroe, and on and on


 

 Skydog wrote: 
Skydog, I'm not attacking you personally. 

What amazes me, though, is that American voters don't even bother to acquaint themselves with facts anymore. MI went for Trump but he is not going to help workers. He doesn't have any real policy ideas that are going to help them and his cabinet is shaping up to be very pro-1%.

I understand the pain that the Detroit area is going through. A lot of manufacturing-intensive areas have been hit hard but trade agreements like TPP and NAFTA didn't have much to do with that. The US economy is very flexible and mutable. Many of our manufacturing jobs lost to other countries would have disappeared from the US even without trade agreements due to decisions by American companies to outsource parts of their supply chains. Also, manufacturing around the world is changing rapidly. The US economy had a long and significant economic boost due to manufacturing superiority but other countries aren't seeing the same kind of long, significant economic boost when they turn to manufacturing. Even China's economy didn't get the same size of an increase due to growth in manufacturing. A lot of manufacturing is now becoming more and more automated; that's especially true of manufacturing that returns to the US. 

I agree with you: the growing income inequality and the decrease in opportunities for younger Americans is frightening. I think the Dems are far more committed to redressing that imbalance and creating opportunities for younger and poorer people than the GOP is. As for Trump...he's crazy, easily distracted, unprepared and a chronic liar. You would not want someone like Trump raking your leaves.  

 kcar wrote: 
hey man, nothing personal, I'm ignored 99.999% of the time and it's not a problem, I thought we can just pick and choose, I ain't debating just making observations
Obama? he would have been known as the T-PP President if it weren't for Bernie and Trump
I don't think you can call me having misplaced grudges and misinformation when I saw economic genicide on entire citys and towns 
I saw it in my hometown and a lot of other cities in this area, it's caused a lot of heartbreak not to mention crime and other deteriorating social ills.
Me? I'm fine, I did good, I won the birth certificate lottery but I can't stand seeing people in their 20's and 30's put in a desperate situation, so yeah I guess I have a grudge.
 

 Skydog wrote: 
Congratulations on ignoring my points concerning Obama's efforts to help the working class during his administration. It appears that you're basing your opinions of the Democratic party on some misplaced grudges and misinformation. 
NAFTA has had a small effect on the American economy and its impact on US labor markets is not clear. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NAFTA's_effect_on_United_States_employment

The economic impacts of NAFTA have been modest. In a 2015 report, the Congressional Research Service summarized multiple studies as follows: "In reality, NAFTA did not cause the huge job losses feared by the critics or the large economic gains predicted by supporters. The net overall effect of NAFTA on the U.S. economy appears to have been relatively modest, primarily because trade with Canada and Mexico accounts for a small percentage of U.S. GDP. However, there were worker and firm adjustment costs as the three countries adjusted to more open trade and investment among their economies."

In a 2003 report, the Congressional Budget Office wrote: "CBO estimates that the increased trade resulting from NAFTA has probably increased U.S. gross domestic product, but by a very small amount—probably a few billion dollars or less, or a few hundredths of a percent." CBO estimated that NAFTA added $10.3 billion to exports and $9.4 billion to imports in 2001. For scale, that was roughly 10% of the trade activity with Mexico in that year.

The Dems then totally abandoned the working class when they saw they could be the party of 'identity politics' and exploit the fears of people who are not male, white, christian and hetero, (and the GOP exploits the fears who are of those types)

So what you're saying is that the Democratic party's support of equal rights for Americans caused the party to stop trying to create jobs for Americans and and working to fight union-busting legislation like state-level "right-to-work" laws. I'm sorry but two are not mutually exclusive. If you seriously think that the party embraced "identity politics" to deliberately move away from helping the working class, prove it. 

As for the PATCO strike—seriously? That was back in 1981. PATCO members were also federal employees and therefore prohibited from going on strike or even bargaining for better wages. 

As for Detroit's 2016 Labor Day parade—so sorry that Bill Clinton's participation in the parade wasn't  good enough for you. 

If you're so worked up about the working class and the need for the federal government to help workers, you are SOL. Take a look at the people that Trump is putting in his cabinet, including this obnoxious dick. Oh, and did you forget about Obama's very successful bailout of the American auto industry during the height of our last financial crisis? That's surprising, you being a Michigander worried about workers and all. 

Trump is going to be a full-fledged disaster for the working class. The GOP has played American workers for decades, distracting them with social wedge issues while it funneled money to its rich supporters. Trump is just going to make matters worse.

 
Trump’s Labor Pick, Andrew Puzder, Is Critic of Minimum Wage Increases
President-elect Donald J. Trump on Thursday named Andrew F. Puzder, chief executive of the company that operates the fast food outlets Hardee’s and Carl’s Jr. and an outspoken critic of the worker protections enacted by the Obama administration, to be secretary of labor.


Also take a look at how the auto industry feels about Trump:
Worried Auto Industry Braces for Change Under Trump 

DETROIT — First the Obama administration bailed out much of the American auto industry, pulling it out of a tailspin. Then it reshaped the business, with regulations and policies intended to increase fuel economy, improve safety and add jobs.

Now, under President-elect Donald J. Trump, the industry is bracing for another wholesale makeover. Perhaps no industry could be affected in more ways by the new administration than the auto business.

....

The changes under the Trump administration could include possible tariffs that will raise prices on imported vehicles and parts, fewer subsidies for electric cars and policies that discourage automakers from moving products from American factories to Mexico.
...

No change would be more consequential to the auto industry than applying steep tariffs on imports from Mexico and elsewhere. Companies could be forced to radically change how and where they get commodity parts, the production of which has been migrating to low-wage nations for decades. Consumers could see a change in the types of cars available.

Despite Mr. Trump’s campaign rhetoric, the American automotive industry and auto jobs have been buoyant since the Obama administration’s bailout.

Since 2010, vehicle production has doubled in the United States, and hundreds of thousands of workers have been hired. Last year, a record 17.4 million cars and trucks were sold in the United States, and analysts forecast strong demand for several years.

 

 kcar wrote: 
Sure they did, it started when they were deadly silent when Pres Regan fired the air traffic controllers (btw they are still sleep deprived and over-worked) and really got a kick in the behind with Pres Clinton's 'fast track' deal for NAFTA
The Dems then totally abandoned the working class when they saw they could be the party of 'identity politics' and exploit the fears of people who are not male, white, christian and hetero, (and the GOP exploits the fears who are of those types)
It probably doesn't matter to anyone living outside of Michigan but Hillary was the first Dem Pres candidate that did not come to Detroit and march in the Labor Day parade but here we saw it as getting the bird flipped at us.
Trump took MI's 16 electorial votes by 10,704 popular votes
 

The childish nonsense continues unabated. So very presidential.

 Skydog wrote: 
I assure you that American foreign policy has looked out for and protected American business interests overseas long before Poppy Bush. However, that thrust is hardly the only one guiding our foreign policy, and to look at our government's international positions and actions primarily through the lens of serving business interests is to seriously distort reality. 

"But they forgot or didn't care about working people in this country hence the Bernie and Trump phenoms" 

The Democratic party did not abandon the working class here. The GOP did and continues to do so.

Obama's government tried very, very hard to get a bigger and better-designed stimulus package through Congress; doing so would have shortened the length and severity of the Great Recession. The votes to have an optimally sized stimulus were not there and the Republicans demanded that part of the stimulus take the form of tax cuts which did not have as large a stimulus effect as other parts of the package.

Obama also tried repeatedly to create jobs-creating programs to help people left behind by the recovery. He went out of his way to emphasize this project during State of The Union addresses. The Republican party never gave his ideas any consideration and never offered any similar programs. Obama also spent a hellacious amount of political capital on the passage of the ACA, which has had significant successes despite failing to sufficiently enforce enrollment requirements and struggling to hold costs down. Affordable health care is a significant economic (and medical) boost to working class people.

So let's stop talking about how the Democrats stiffed the working class. Part of the problem was the nature of The Great Recession. In general, economic recoveries from financial bubbles are weak, prolonged and leave working class people behind. The financial bailouts of investment companies and banks lead to uneven rates of recovery, popular anger, the rise of right-wing politics, and political fracturing.

This New Republic piece builds on the work of three economists who linked financial crises to the rise of right-wing politics in various countries. It also offers pre-election observations about trends in American politics.

The Real Roots of the Rising Right

(emphasis in the excerpt below is mine)
...

 Red_Dragon wrote: 
Obviously Mike Pence is, as it was said he would do, running the transition team.  Pence is a political thug, imo.

 steeler wrote: 
fox/hen house

 Red_Dragon wrote: 
sounds more like a pick for Department of Energy.
Was  the CEO of Exxon not available? 

Donald Trump Picks Scott Pruitt, Ally of Fossil Fuel Industry, to Lead E.P.A.

 Red_Dragon wrote: 
yep, I knew about the Boeing statement and thought, is Trump going to continue being in campaign mode for 4 years?
just like in a campaign when your opponet makes an accusation you respond fast and undercut him with accusations of your own

look out Chuck Scumer, your old friend will be gunning for you and even you Mitch McConnell better watch what you say publicly