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Index » Radio Paradise/General » General Discussion » Bitcoin Page: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next
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kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Oct 20, 2021 - 4:50pm

Well crypto is getting some respect now. 

FBN just added Bitcoin and Etherium to their primary financial numbers rotation. 

And these two are moving up to new highs as well.
westslope

westslope Avatar

Location: BC sage brush steppe


Posted: Oct 17, 2021 - 9:17am

 kurtster wrote:
....

Yes, I find macro economics fascinating. Along with logistics. I was going to go for a Masters in Supply Chain Management at CWRU after I got my BBA in 2007. In 2008 the starting pay for grads was an easy $100 k. Found out I needed 2 years of Calculus and I didn't know if I had it in me to write another paper. I did a 40 pager for my BBA. Then I got sick and that ship sailed for good.

.....


I do very little in precious metals.  Too moody for my tastes.  Ever notice that the really successful Gold Bug speculators take profits and then sit in cash?  Sometimes sitting in cash for rather long periods of time?  Contradictions much?  How about that discourse that the world was ending?

Rare metals is a tough trade.   No understanding?  Stay away.  Say no to envy.  Say no to regret.

Foreign exchange is super speculative.  Currencies can trade well above or well below purchasing power parity rates of exchange for years and years at a time.  The currency speculators who I have met and appear to do well are usually trading on technicals (TA) and the trading horizon is very, very short.  Days or hours.  One of  Canada's best known international finance economists trades currencies using TA (technical analysis) suggesting that mean reversion and fundamental analysis are not all that useful.

Too bad you missed the Masters in Supply Chain Management.   Those are skills that will remain in high demand going forward despite all the current bleating by economic nationalists and those calling for a more muscular industrial policy.  

Calculus is extremely useful.  I did well in high school calculus and algebra but in hindsight wished that the teachers had invited in folks with a background in either academia, financial sector, engineering, etc., to explain just how incredibly useful these math skills are in real life.

One of the things I have learned over the years is that one can make really good coin in boring equity plays.    Blue-chip, dividend-paying stocks.   REITs.  Probably MLPs too (don't have those in Canada).    A good understanding of macroeconomics helps.  Some understanding of market structure and the regulatory environment also helps.   

Covered-call enhanced ETFs may not appreciate much but can crank out high yields year in, year out (e.g., 5% to 12%).   A little understanding of the history of the ETF and the sector(s) it focuses on are helpful.  Even if the capital value trends down over time, the cash distributions in a tax-protected account can more than make up for the capital loss.   The managers do all the heavy lifting in the options market; the investor sits back and collects cash distributions — monthly. 


kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Oct 16, 2021 - 10:47pm

 westslope wrote:
 kurtster wrote:
............

Just a reminder about what, where and why I am. The platform is PayPal and it is 100% funded by me. No margins, puts, holds, stops or anything. Full 24 / 7 manual control.

..............

Good.  If the trade goes south, you will not have to move into and live in an RV.

Recall one of the most useful concepts from freemarket economics:  sunk costs and the related sunk cost fallacy.   

In terms of investment, that means that the current price of an asset is what matters.  What you paid for it does not or, better put, SHOULD not matter.   The current price and the future prospects of the asset are what matter. 

If it makes you feel any better, lots of graduate school-trained economists and economists with a financial specialization have trouble with this one.  These are smart, numerate folks and they are still capable of making major behavioural mistakes.  Which suggests why in part economists, financial experts and related love behavioural economics and finance.
 
Yeah.  I cut my teeth on precious metals.  Problem with it mostly (besides volatility) is you had you buy minimum amounts and had to sell off within the minimums in blocks of.  Then holding costs and interest with margins and sometimes commissions.  Then you had to wait for your local market to open.  Often times big moves happened elsewhere before the US markets opened and you were screwed.  But that works both ways and then they are also beholden to currency exchange rates which drives prices up in down all by themselves in your local currency.  I was going to do FOREX before I tried metals, but that required programs, stable internet service and also blocks.

I'm trying to apply the lessons learned there here with crypto.  Metals cycled notably silver.  I learned too late.  It used to be very range bound up until a few years ago and you could predict the moves.  Platinum and Palladium were most affected by projected car sales.  One was more favored by diesel and the other gasoline.  I forget which.  Palladium was the biggest mover last I looked which hasn't been in a couple of years.  Gold, meh now.

All that stuff was too white knuckle for me looking back and why I was glad to get out altogether.  This is pretty simple and laid back and starting to come into focus.  ETH is passing through major resistance points and within about $500 of its all time high and pushing hard at $4000 right now.  It was above that in mid September and then fell back rather sharply.  It has come back now a month later.  Once it cracks that it becomes decision time.  What I'm thinking is that it will be up for a day or two and then drop back sharply to around $3000 ish.  So if a profit is taken at 4 there is enough change to go back in at 3 and continue a cycle.  Hard to tell.  But that is what I'm thinking now.

Yes, I find macro economics fascinating.  Along with logistics.  I was going to go for a Masters in Supply Chain Management at CWRU after I got my BBA in 2007.  In 2008 the starting pay for grads was an easy $100 k.  Found out I needed 2 years of Calculus and I didn't know if I had it in me to write another paper.  I did a 40 pager for my BBA.  Then I got sick and that ship sailed for good.

But this crypto stuff is beginning to make sense to me.  I get the forks, with Bitcoin Cash being a fork off of BTC.  Etherium just had a major fork over the summer but it was internalized rather than spun off which improves the product and makes it more efficient.  Sometime shortly after all the fuss about energy consumption hit the fan in the Spring somewhere I saw where crypto miners were buying up decommissioned power plants and reopening them to serve their own needs and provide their own stable power off the grid.  And make their energy costs much less and more predictable.
kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Oct 16, 2021 - 8:44pm

 Steely_D wrote:
 kurtster wrote:

Hey steely, you still in ?   You're not camped out in my backyard. We are back close to the all time high.  It's pretty tempting to take some profit, but with my luck it will really get going.  

I'm not in BTC, but in ETH. Finally back up to the level where it's minimally profitable ($3,898/coin). Bought in at $3375/coin and should've bought more when it dropped to ⅓ of that, but I'd made a deal with myself that I'd buy once and hodl. Which means the question is
Is this a currency that can be used for day to day transactions, like people wish, or is it just a Beanie Baby where you buy, hold, and hope to be wealthy from the investment one day? It's looking for all the world that crypto is the latter, because of its wild price unpredictability. It makes it completely useless as a currency.
 
Yeah, I knew that you had ETH.  I thought you bought in back when we were talking about it.  You would definitely be up 100% if you did.  Yeah, missed the dip, too.  Was still watching and very nervous, I'll admit.

You should be safe for the long term @ $3375.  I don't think that ETH is suited to be a currency at this point.  Both BTC and ETH are more suited for stores of wealth, especially ETH.  The others can definitely be currencies.  Over the long term they have settled down to be pretty flat.  Acceptance and fees become what matters.  Way too many.  What I have already read is that many people in families for example are using certain coins to move money globally.  Find one that works in everybody's country and move money with as few international conversion fees as possible.  Kind of like a friend and family cell phone plan.  Get a wallet, fill it, move it to another wallet and take it out.  Fluctuation is not much of a problem when you're in and right back out.  This might stick a fork in Western Union.  Otherwise for shopping, unless it's a large purchase, they are pretty much worthless as long as they are volatile.

With PayPal, it is set up so that they will allow you to spend any crypto that you hold for payment of purchases run through PayPal.  You cannot receive crypto from others like a wallet though.  If someone sends you something that was their own crypto, PayPal converts it to your local currency when you get it.  That sucks.
westslope

westslope Avatar

Location: BC sage brush steppe


Posted: Oct 16, 2021 - 10:23am

 kurtster wrote:
............

Just a reminder about what, where and why I am. The platform is PayPal and it is 100% funded by me. No margins, puts, holds, stops or anything. Full 24 / 7 manual control.

..............

Good.  If the trade goes south, you will not have to move into and live in an RV.

Recall one of the most useful concepts from freemarket economics:  sunk costs and the related sunk cost fallacy.   

In terms of investment, that means that the current price of an asset is what matters.  What you paid for it does not or, better put, SHOULD not matter.   The current price and the future prospects of the asset are what matter. 

If it makes you feel any better, lots of graduate school-trained economists and economists with a financial specialization have trouble with this one.  These are smart, numerate folks and they are still capable of making major behavioural mistakes.  Which suggests why in part economists, financial experts and related love behavioural economics and finance.


Steely_D

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Location: Biscayne Bay
Gender: Male


Posted: Oct 16, 2021 - 9:43am

 kurtster wrote:

Hey steely, you still in ?   You're not camped out in my backyard.

We are back close to the all time high.  It's pretty tempting to take some profit, but with my luck it will really get going.  



I'm not in BTC, but in ETH. Finally back up to the level where it's minimally profitable ($3,898/coin). Bought in at $3375/coin and should've bought more when it dropped to ⅓ of that, but I'd made a deal with myself that I'd buy once and hodl.

Which means the question is
Is this a currency that can be used for day to day transactions, like people wish, or is it just a Beanie Baby where you buy, hold, and hope to be wealthy from the investment one day?

It's looking for all the world that crypto is the latter, because of its wild price unpredictability. It makes it completely useless as a currency.




kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Oct 15, 2021 - 4:13pm

 westslope wrote:
kurtster et al.,

If you are actually making good coin on Bitcoin and other crypto-currencies — congratulations! — do not be shy about selling into the heat.   Think about taking down 2/3 to 4/5 of your position, at least.

Among other things, you are facing considerable policy risk.  

Fear of missing out is the worst mistake a speculative investor/trader can make.   I know from (repeated) personal experience and having watched too many to count other speculators do the same.  

 
Just a reminder about what, where and why I am.  The platform is PayPal and it is 100% funded by me.  No margins, puts, holds, stops or anything.  Full 24 / 7 manual control.

Of the 4 cryptos available I settled on Etherium after trying all 4.  They others were Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin.  The reason I went with Etherium over the others is that it does other things beside just be a vehicle for monetary exchange.  It is also a building block for block chain development and therefore more useful; a multipurpose commodity.

I just went through all four of the cyptos mentioned above and keyed on the past 6 month gains (losses) to date for each one.

Bitcoin  +7.7%  +$4300 per coin

Bitcoin Cash  (- 37%)  (- $363)

Litecoin  (- 31%)  (- $84)

Etherium    +70%  +$1600

I'm up about 55% since I got out and back in a bit higher.  Steely should be up nearly 100% since he got in at a really good price.

So the question I ask myself is if Etherium is going to keep on cycling and do what you suggest or hold tight as I have been and go real long.  I do not have an immediate need for what is tied up and holding it does not cost me anything.  But if it is going to cycle, I need to start taking advantage of that.
kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Oct 15, 2021 - 3:43pm

 ScottFromWyoming wrote:
 kurtster wrote:

Hey steely, you still in ?   You're not camped out in my backyard.

We are back close to the all time high.  It's pretty tempting to take some profit, but with my luck it will really get going.  



Not sure if you watch TV with commercials but the baseball playoffs streaming platform has had crypto brokers every inning; anyway the mainstream investors are getting in or got in but that makes me think it's a bubble.
 
I watch mostly business news and the crypto ads are just a wee bit more than they have been in the past.  We also watch a lot of HGTV and DIY stuff.  Never seen one there on any of those shows.  Makes sense to see it heavily promoted with sporting events.  Gamblers would the target, imo.  Impulse buyers.

Bubble ?  Depends on what goes on around it.  And depends on which crypto, there are so many now.
westslope

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Location: BC sage brush steppe


Posted: Oct 15, 2021 - 11:37am

kurtster et al.,

If you are actually making good coin on Bitcoin and other crypto-currencies — congratulations! — do not be shy about selling into the heat.   Think about taking down 2/3 to 4/5 of your position, at least.

Among other things, you are facing considerable policy risk.  

Fear of missing out is the worst mistake a speculative investor/trader can make.   I know from (repeated) personal experience and having watched too many to count other speculators do the same.  

ScottFromWyoming

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Location: Powell
Gender: Male


Posted: Oct 15, 2021 - 8:46am

 kurtster wrote:

Hey steely, you still in ?   You're not camped out in my backyard.

We are back close to the all time high.  It's pretty tempting to take some profit, but with my luck it will really get going.  



Not sure if you watch TV with commercials but the baseball playoffs streaming platform has had crypto brokers every inning; anyway the mainstream investors are getting in or got in but that makes me think it's a bubble.
kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Oct 14, 2021 - 8:47pm

Hey steely, you still in ?   You're not camped out in my backyard.

We are back close to the all time high.  It's pretty tempting to take some profit, but with my luck it will really get going.  
kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Jul 13, 2021 - 8:43pm

 islander wrote:
 

So, are you still in?

My Sundial Growers play is probably going to sell out at a loss today. My Enphase and SunRun speculation is doing well.  I still really like this space and am now looking to some other connected pieces. I think that energy storage and infrastructure systems still have a lot of potential. Several of the flywheel energy companies look good. I'm going to pick up some ABB, I'm still looking for a good company that is making a flywheel energy storage system.
 
Yeah, I'm still in.  It got back up to purchase price once already.  I'm just gonna see if it starts cycling within a certain range for awhile.  May buy this dip and try and get a bit of a gain and sell that part on the rise.  If it makes it down to $1700 and I'm by the puter, I'll probably bite.  That could be as soon as the morning.  Life has been real complicated these past couple of months with lot's of medical stuff going on, so I'm being cautious and patient right now.  Haven't been paying enough attention to related things.  Not a good time for decision making right now.

Edit:  Did some catching up and it seems that inflation worries are driving things down at the moment.  Also concern as to whether or not the Fed will do anymore quantitative easing.  More is good for crypto.  Currently the Fed has about $8 Trillion on its balance sheet.  Adding more would cause inflation.
westslope

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Location: BC sage brush steppe


Posted: Jul 13, 2021 - 3:06pm

 islander wrote:

.......

Looking for 25% on speculative investments and you call me the 1%!  Good luck. I'm sure with your knack for buying at the lows you'll be rolling in it soon.


I had to laugh when I read this.  25% on a speculative investment is rather tame (but probably a realistic, relatively safe goal).  

kurtster:  You would know that islander was a 1%er if he bragged about making a modest compound annual rate of return below the rate of return on the S&P500, and in passing, casually mentioned his cattle ranch in Idaho or the upland game preserve he visits annually in Argentina. 

Unless islander was a precious metals specialist like Eric Sprott or risk-loving mining entrepreneur like Robert Friedland.  If that was the case, he would be too busy to hand out free advice on RP.

——————————————————-

Investment story:  My wife worked for a long time with a linguistics professor in an Eastern Canadian university.  She would buy shares in a company and then sell them after it made a 20% gain.   No exceptions.   I do not know any relevant details but would guess that her portfolio out-performed most self-directed portfolios in Canada.    Her strategy was so unorthodox and simple, that only an economist could appreciate it.  

Other than their love of passive investing (e.g., ETFs), what is the one thing that economists emphasize in this world that others should heed?   Costs matter.   The time spent researching matters.  The time spent checking in matters.  The time spent fretting matters hugely.  

islander

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Location: Seattle
Gender: Male


Posted: Jul 13, 2021 - 5:54am

 kurtster wrote:


So you can play along, since you seem to be so interested.  
In on May 24  Exchange rate $2,419.42 USD = 1 Ethereum (ETH)

Current price:  CLICKY   $2793.02 or roughly 10%

Current PP sell price:

$2,776.63 USD = 1 ETH  with a $2790.02 market price

I am currently looking to see what the new range is likely to be going forward.  If I get up 25% ( $31-3200 ?) I might cash out and wait to go back in on a dip.  But that is dependent on if it starts cycling.  There is also the risk of getting out and getting left behind.  There may not be another dip or one that matters for a very long time.



So, are you still in?

My Sundial Growers play is probably going to sell out at a loss today. My Enphase and SunRun speculation is doing well.  I still really like this space and am now looking to some other connected pieces. I think that energy storage and infrastructure systems still have a lot of potential. Several of the flywheel energy companies look good. I'm going to pick up some ABB, I'm still looking for a good company that is making a flywheel energy storage system.
islander

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Location: Seattle
Gender: Male


Posted: Jun 25, 2021 - 6:36am

 islander wrote:



I'm sure you schooled the paypal guys and have set them straight. But if you want to be taken seriously in most investment groups you talk about your trades in real time. You don't need to tell us how much you are putting in, but it adds a lot more legitimacy if you say "today I bought, and here's my targets", instead of "I bought last week when it was low and sold today".  My speculation fund is about $1k. I'm moving some of it around. Here is what I have planned:  I have a buy order for SNDL at $1 that I hope fills tomorrow.  I'm also looking at moving some into Enphase and Sunrun. for Sundial I'm looking to sell out on an upswing at about $1.2, and Enphase and Sunrun I'll probably sell when I get a 10% return or so - depending on the volatility that goes with the solar guys I may change that target a little bit. 



My SNDL order never filled because it stayed too high. I got around to looking at it yesterday and I missed the low, but it's at my original target, so I bought in at $1.  Not expecting much, but stop loss is at $.85 and sell is at $1.2.  I think I'm going longer on Enphase, but I took a little profit on Sunrun and moved it to First Solar. First is the same basic segment, but astronger company and is trading at a pretty good discount right now.  While looking around I went back to check Sunpower and found a P/E under 13. That was almost enough to get me in, but the rest of their fundamentals are messy. 
kurtster

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Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Jun 8, 2021 - 7:14pm

 rgio wrote:

It could be stolen before.  There were cases that included "fake" wallets and other infrastructure plots...but the idea that a government could unlock a wallet seemed unlikely.

If they can track the wallet, what else can they see?  I would guess the US has been hiding this ability for a while and decided to try and scare off some of the bandits by letting them consider what the US might be able to see.  If governments can track bitcoin, a lot of the underworld / dark web utility disappears.



I find this ability, if indeed it is a real one, good for crypto actually.  It will help to keep the riff raff more out of the picture.
rgio

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Location: West Jersey
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Posted: Jun 8, 2021 - 6:22pm

 haresfur wrote:


More to the point, it not only can be tracked, it can be stolen, right?

It could be stolen before.  There were cases that included "fake" wallets and other infrastructure plots...but the idea that a government could unlock a wallet seemed unlikely.

If they can track the wallet, what else can they see?  I would guess the US has been hiding this ability for a while and decided to try and scare off some of the bandits by letting them consider what the US might be able to see.  If governments can track bitcoin, a lot of the underworld / dark web utility disappears.

haresfur

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Posted: Jun 8, 2021 - 3:37pm

 rgio wrote:

Hmmmm....?



That can't be good for business.  If the crooks now have to worry that the government can track it, the value would have to plummet...wouldn't it?  


More to the point, it not only can be tracked, it can be stolen, right?
rgio

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Location: West Jersey
Gender: Male


Posted: Jun 8, 2021 - 11:31am

Hmmmm....?

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The Justice Department on Monday recovered some $2.3 million in cryptocurrency ransom paid by Colonial Pipeline Co, cracking down on hackers who launched the most disruptive U.S. cyberattack on record.

Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco said investigators had seized 63.7 bitcoins, now valued at about $2.3 million, paid by Colonial after last month's hack of its systems that led to massive shortages at U.S. East Coast gas stations.

The Justice Department has "found and recaptured the majority" of the ransom paid by Colonial, Monaco said.

An affidavit filed on Monday said the FBI was in possession of a private key to unlock a bitcoin wallet that had received most of the funds. It was unclear how the FBI gained access to the key.


That can't be good for business.  If the crooks now have to worry that the government can track it, the value would have to plummet...wouldn't it?  
R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Jun 8, 2021 - 11:22am

“Bitcoin just seems like a scam,” he said, “I don’t like it because it’s another currency competing against the dollar. I want the dollar to be the currency of the world; that’s what I’ve always said.”

Trump’s comments drew scorn from far-right activists such as conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer and Ali Alexander, the leader of the so-called Stop the Steal movement. They each questioned the former president’s anti-Bitcoin stance and claimed that the real “scam” was Trump’s longstanding support for the COVID-19 vaccine.

“Since we are on the topic of scams, I’d say COVID vaccines are also a scam,” Loomer wrote on Telegram Monday. “The reality is Trump’s base is pro-cryptocurrency and anti-COVID vaccine.”

Alexander agreed with Loomer, adding that “Trump is so passionately pro his experimental vaccine and anti-Bitcoin yet his base is the opposite on both issues.”

“He has terrible advisors and needs to re-examine these issues of freedom,” Alexander wrote to his nearly 20,000 subscribers on Telegram. “Like dude… get over it. We the People choose freedom.”

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