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kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 5, 2022 - 6:42pm

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
 VV wrote:

I would guess that comment is likely aimed at me. 
 
Who is making sh*t up about anyone in this thread? I only said that the Ukraine war wasn’t started over oil or about oil. Oil is simply what Putin is trying to use as leverage against those Western nations who have been highly dependent on it to try and erode their support of Ukraine.
 
Where in that statement did I make sh*t up about anyone?  I stand behind it but you are clearly troubled by it. 
totally agree on this, ten times over. This war was never about oil, although it may have played some role in in the backwaters of Putin's cerebellum but it was certainly not the issue for the rest of Europe. To say it is about oil is anyway a total non sequitur.  Were it about oil and guaranteed energy supplies then 1) from the Russian perspective, Putin would not have started the war (they have the oil, right) but, if anything, he would have leveraged his position to raise oil prices and not spit in the face of his biggest customers and 2) were it only about oil from Europe's perspective they would have immediately sacrificed Ukraine for the sake of cheap guaranteed supplies (which it appears Putin was hoping). the fact that this didn't happen by itself shows 1) Putin is the aggressor (not Europe or the west) and 2) there are more important things for both sides than the customer client relationship governing the supply of oil.  Which means this war is solely about Putin's attempt to revive the Soviet empire. All of his speeches support this view and it is substantiated by all of his actions. The resistance from Ukraine, former Eastern bloc nations, the rest of Europe and the US is because the Soviet system is anathema to what these countries believe in. Who wants to live in a kleptocratic failed state that is at best two generations behind the rest of the world?  Not even a lot of Russians want to do that, otherwise why did they leave in droves? There is basically no justification for Russian's invasion of Ukraine, be it geopolitically, historically, economically or morally, and it is high time they left the country, went home and took care of their own shit.
 
Let's look back at the recent history between Russia and Ukraine.  Some of the most important oil and natural gas pipelines run through Ukraine.  Ukraine was in debt up to their ears to Russia because of their inability or unwillingness to pay Russia their gas bill.  I remember the US and others IIRC sending money to Ukraine to help pay off this debt early in Obama's first term.  Ukraine then began stealing gas from Russia.  The pipelines were shut down for awhile, exposing Europe's vulnerability to dependency of Russia for energy in the process.

Also, the corruption in Ukraine is legendary.  Putin's puppet was tossed out of power. Putin seized Crimea while Obama watched and did nothing. Obama gave responsibility over Ukraine to Biden.   Just like Biden gave Harris responsibility of our southern border to Kamala ...  Biden held Ukraine hostage over $1 billion ± to get rid of an investigation involving Hunter and Burisma Energy.  Trump was impeached for sticking his nose in Ukraine regarding the Biden family's business dealings.

But let's get back to the oil.  This is very old news for those of very short memory here since this was hashed over long ago.  Here's some charts and links to peruse.  Then everyone can get back to me and tell me that oil has little to do with any of this ...

Ukraine’s Gas-Fuelled Crisis
Nikki Jones and Will Thornton
Ukraine stands on the brink of civil war and bankruptcy, and energy has been a key factor. Is diversification of supply possible? Is it even a partial solution?This article appeared in Vol. 11, No. 3 - 2014





black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 5, 2022 - 5:06pm

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:


totally agree on this, ten times over. This war was never about oil, although it may have played some role in in the backwaters of Putin's cerebellum but it was certainly not the issue for the rest of Europe. To say it is about oil is anyway a total non sequitur. 

Were it about oil and guaranteed energy supplies then 1) from the Russian perspective, Putin would not have started the war (they have the oil, right) but, if anything, he would have leveraged his position to raise oil prices and not spit in the face of his biggest customers and 2) were it only about oil from Europe's perspective they would have immediately sacrificed Ukraine for the sake of cheap guaranteed supplies (which it appears Putin was hoping).

the fact that this didn't happen by itself shows 1) Putin is the aggressor (not Europe or the west) and 2) there are more important things for both sides than the customer client relationship governing the supply of oil. 

Which means this war is solely about Putin's attempt to revive the Soviet empire. All of his speeches support this view and it is substantiated by all of his actions. The resistance from Ukraine, former Eastern bloc nations, the rest of Europe and the US is because the Soviet system is anathema to what these countries believe in. Who wants to live in a kleptocratic failed state that is at best two generations behind the rest of the world?  Not even a lot of Russians want to do that, otherwise why did they leave in droves?

There is basically no justification for Russian's invasion of Ukraine, be it geopolitically, historically, economically or morally, and it is high time they left the country, went home and took care of their own shit.

 

I sort of agree...yes Putin is clearly the aggressor.

From Putin's perspective, it was about turning back the clock, returning to being an adversary instead of a partner, rejecting the west, and first and foremost feeling threatened by ukraine turning towards the west, instead of mother russia.  The west played a role over the past 20 years by not accepting this, and continuing to play in his backyard...whether ukraine has the right to choose its own future is not the point (and some did choose russia...an ongoing civil war, donetsk/luhansk). Of course they have the right to choose, but that ignores the geopolitical political risks....which gets us to where we are...an elevated, prolonged war that is seriously disrupting the flow and supply of key commodities, have a deep impact throughout the globe, and especially among impoverished nations.

At this point its seems any arguments about war or not are moot.

black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 5, 2022 - 4:47pm

 VV wrote:

I would guess that comment is likely aimed at me. 
 
Who is making sh*t up about anyone in this thread? I only said that the Ukraine war wasn’t started over oil or about oil. Oil is simply what Putin is trying to use as leverage against those Western nations who have been highly dependent on it to try and erode their support of Ukraine.
 
Where in that statement did I make sh*t up about anyone?  I stand behind it but you are clearly troubled by it. 



Was referring to your comment about "Russian repression"  
Perhaps I misunderstood, but that sounded like you were implying I somehow sympathize...

Re. the oil bit, it could be, it could not be.
On the one hand, one might think if it was about oil, why not let Russia take what they want, end this all quickly, and get back to ship oil, wheat,...
On the other, maybe the inside view is that the west is threatened by Putin, and feels he may continue manipulate their vulnerability, reliance on Ukraine/Russian commodities.
Regardless, it's in Europe's backyard, and not some 3rd world southern hemisphere nation , so there is that (sorry to be callous, but that is a reality)

NoEnzLefttoSplit

NoEnzLefttoSplit Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 5, 2022 - 1:36pm

 R_P wrote:

You might have noticed that the projection of weakness is in fashion.



you're making it worse...
R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Nov 5, 2022 - 1:30pm

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
too weak. Believe me, I don't want or need to see you weak. 

You might have noticed that the projection of weakness is in fashion.

NoEnzLefttoSplit

NoEnzLefttoSplit Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 5, 2022 - 1:19pm

 R_P wrote:

You see what you want/need to see.



too weak. Believe me, I don't want or need to see you weak. 
NoEnzLefttoSplit

NoEnzLefttoSplit Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 5, 2022 - 1:19pm

 VV wrote:

I would guess that comment is likely aimed at me. 
 
Who is making sh*t up about anyone in this thread? I only said that the Ukraine war wasn’t started over oil or about oil. Oil is simply what Putin is trying to use as leverage against those Western nations who have been highly dependent on it to try and erode their support of Ukraine.
 
Where in that statement did I make sh*t up about anyone?  I stand behind it but you are clearly troubled by it. 



totally agree on this, ten times over. This war was never about oil, although it may have played some role in in the backwaters of Putin's cerebellum but it was certainly not the issue for the rest of Europe. To say it is about oil is anyway a total non sequitur. 

Were it about oil and guaranteed energy supplies then 1) from the Russian perspective, Putin would not have started the war (they have the oil, right) but, if anything, he would have leveraged his position to raise oil prices and not spit in the face of his biggest customers and 2) were it only about oil from Europe's perspective they would have immediately sacrificed Ukraine for the sake of cheap guaranteed supplies (which it appears Putin was hoping).

the fact that this didn't happen by itself shows 1) Putin is the aggressor (not Europe or the west) and 2) there are more important things for both sides than the customer client relationship governing the supply of oil. 

Which means this war is solely about Putin's attempt to revive the Soviet empire. All of his speeches support this view and it is substantiated by all of his actions. The resistance from Ukraine, former Eastern bloc nations, the rest of Europe and the US is because the Soviet system is anathema to what these countries believe in. Who wants to live in a kleptocratic failed state that is at best two generations behind the rest of the world?  Not even a lot of Russians want to do that, otherwise why did they leave in droves?

There is basically no justification for Russian's invasion of Ukraine, be it geopolitically, historically, economically or morally, and it is high time they left the country, went home and took care of their own shit.

R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Nov 5, 2022 - 1:07pm

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
tell me again, what is it about your love for totalitarian socialist government that distinguishes you from fascist rule? I swear, I find it hard to see the difference.

You see what you want/need to see.

NoEnzLefttoSplit

NoEnzLefttoSplit Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 5, 2022 - 12:58pm

 R_P wrote:

No, no, no! It's all about The Democracy™.


tell me again, what is it about your love for totalitarian socialist government that distinguishes you from fascist rule? I swear, I find it hard to see the difference.
VV

VV Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 5, 2022 - 11:32am

 black321 wrote:
There they go again…anytime someone questions any response besides a military one they make attempts to frame it as a Putin sympathizer.  
This isn’t the Talk Behind Their Backs forum…you can’t just make s$&t up about people.  


I would guess that comment is likely aimed at me. 
 
Who is making sh*t up about anyone in this thread? I only said that the Ukraine war wasn’t started over oil or about oil. Oil is simply what Putin is trying to use as leverage against those Western nations who have been highly dependent on it to try and erode their support of Ukraine.
 
Where in that statement did I make sh*t up about anyone?  I stand behind it but you are clearly troubled by it. 

R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Nov 5, 2022 - 9:38am

 black321 wrote:

The reason why we, western gov, care about Ukraine is oil and other commodities, or don’t you believe Biden (who in this case is part correct about inflation)?
There’s currently negotiations to set price caps in Russian oil… while a number of republicans are starting to soften their support.


No, no, no! It's all about The Democracy™.
black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 5, 2022 - 9:35am

The reason why we, western gov, care about Ukraine is oil and other commodities, or don’t you believe Biden (who in this case is part correct about inflation)?
There’s currently negotiations to set price caps in Russian oil… while a number of republicans are starting to soften their support.  

black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 5, 2022 - 9:28am

There they go again…anytime someone questions any response besides a military one they make attempts to frame it as a Putin sympathizer.  
This isn’t the Talk Behind Their Backs forum…you can’t just make s$&t up about people.  
R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Nov 4, 2022 - 10:55pm

 kurtster wrote:
It is clear that Putin must be stopped, cold in his tracks. No appeasement or compromises anymore. We, as the so called civilized western world, have to draw a line in the sand and say no more. If not here, where ?

M.A.G.A! Oh wait...


Maybe it's time to get the band back together: Tony B.'s Coalition of the Willing...
VV

VV Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 4, 2022 - 10:10pm

 kurtster wrote:
Once again, we have another war that is ultimately about oil. The lack of it is causing grave weaknesses and vulnerabilities to the whole world. I see somewhere that it was posted that with ALL the efforts to implement green energy, we have only lowered oil's share from 82% to 81%.

The war is not about oil at all… was Russia invading Ukraine to secure oil rich land that Russia coveted? No, the war is about Vladimir Putin’s imperialist ambitions to try and retool Russia into a version of Soviet Union II only the script isn’t quite playing out the way he planned.

Oil… and access to it… is simply a lever that Putin was hoping to exploit to try and erode support for Ukraine from countries that were highly dependent on Russia on supplying it to them. 

VV

VV Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 4, 2022 - 9:55pm

 black321 wrote:


I don't think many actually support the war, but they see supporting (no direct involvement) Ukraine in fighting as appropriate, while ignoring or largely discounting the long history leading up to the invasion. 

I guess you must mean the long and storied history of Russian repression. Nope, I don’t think anyone is discounting that at all. In fact I think everyone recognizes it as a primary contributing factor to the current state of affairs.

kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 4, 2022 - 9:25pm

 black321 wrote:
 R_P wrote:

If it's MOST, then I assume you're talking about support for the Russia-Ukraine war. Political party perhaps, ideology not so much.
I don't think many actually support the war, but they see supporting (no direct involvement) Ukraine in fighting as appropriate, while ignoring or largely discounting the long history leading up to the invasion. 
 
I believe to some that there is a sense of resignation over this whole thing.  We have kicked the can all the way to the end of the road.  Now we have to pick it up and deal with it.

It is clear that Putin must be stopped, cold in his tracks.  No appeasement or compromises anymore.  We, as the so called civilized western world, have to draw a line in the sand and say no more.  If not here, where ?

I don't want any full tilt nuclear annihilation scenario.  I grew up with the threat of this once already.  Biden / Putin is not the same as Kennedy / Khrushchev however.  Two old and deranged men are in charge of this round.

Once again, we have another war that is ultimately about oil.  The lack of it is causing grave weaknesses and vulnerabilities to the whole world.  I see somewhere that it was posted that with ALL the efforts to implement green energy, we have only lowered oil's share from 82% to 81%.

Do I have a point ?  I dunno.  Perhaps green energy is not ready for prime time and won't be anytime soon.  This premature push to it at the expense of using oil is destabilizing the world.  Oil is much more than fuel for internal combustion engines, it is still the lifeblood of our civilization.  The quickest way to peace as I see it is an abundance of oil.  Deweaponize it with abundance.
{#Meditate}
R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Nov 4, 2022 - 4:24pm

 black321 wrote:
I don't think many actually support the war, but they see supporting (no direct involvement) Ukraine in fighting as appropriate, while ignoring or largely discounting the long history leading up to the invasion. 

Right, I guess that's one way of (narrowly) framing support.

black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 4, 2022 - 2:57pm

 R_P wrote:

If it's MOST, then I assume you're talking about support for the Russia-Ukraine war.

Political party perhaps, ideology not so much.



I don't think many actually support the war, but they see supporting (no direct involvement) Ukraine in fighting as appropriate, while ignoring or largely discounting the long history leading up to the invasion. 
R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Nov 4, 2022 - 2:43pm

 black321 wrote:
edited my comment to most.
and there are those who don't attach to a political ideology or party.

If it's MOST, then I assume you're talking about support for the Russia-Ukraine war.

Political party perhaps, ideology not so much.

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