I would caution against predicting or calling the peak of this pandemic just yet. (...)
I agree, hence I used 'seems' (all things/trends being as they are). There's always the possibility that the dip at the end of the graph is merely a prelude to a another growth if policies are changed or if, for instance, a new epicenter develops on another continent. Regardless, for the time being, it is likely that some of the bulk from Europe will continue to shrink a bit more if restrictions are kept in place. The other part will depend on relative growth in the UK and the US and turning that around.
If restrictions go, the graph will change a lot.
What freaked me out was the estimate that even in June, 95% of Americans would still be uninfected and hence vulnerable. Scaryscary sh!^.
Kudos and panegyrics to anyone who can identify the movie/show from that gif above.
I would caution against predicting or calling the peak of this pandemic just yet. (...)
I agree, hence I used 'seems' (all things/trends being as they are). There's always the possibility that the dip at the end of the graph is merely a prelude to a another growth if policies are changed or if, for instance, a new epicenter develops on another continent. Regardless, for the time being, it is likely that some of the bulk from Europe will continue to shrink a bit more if restrictions are kept in place. The other part will depend on relative growth in the UK and the US and turning that around.
Globally, the top of the hill seems to have been reached...
I would caution against predicting or calling the peak of this pandemic just yet. Current trends may not hold if countries stop enforcing quarantines, social distancing, mask wearing, etc. The lethality of the coronavirus depends in part on whether we're strict or relaxed in keeping people isolated from each other.
I posted this excerpt of a New York Times article two days ago or so. Look at the quote of Dr. Christopher Murray, the director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. I'll repeat it here:
âWeâre just looking at this first wave,â noted Dr. Murray. He estimates that in June, some 95 percent of Americans will still be susceptible to the virus.
Third, while we can bend the curve, it will bend back when we relax our social distancing.
This is more bad news, for many people seem to believe that once we get through this grim month or two, the nightmare will be over. But the virus is resilient, and health experts warn that this may be just the first wave of what may be many waves of infections until we get a vaccine sometime in 2021.
Already, Japan after initial success is seeing a surge of infections, while China and South Korea have struggled with imported infections; that seems inevitable as economies restart and travel resumes.
âThereâs this biological fact that still in South Korea, the people who havenât been infected arenât immune, and as soon as thereâs an end to social distancing theyâll be vulnerable again,â noted Dr. Mark Poznansky of Harvard Medical School.
The same is true in the United States.
âWeâre just looking at this first wave,â noted Dr. Murray. He estimates that in June, some 95 percent of Americans will still be susceptible to the virus.
âThe worldâs on fire with this virus,â said Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota, and this means that even if one country succeeds in putting out the blaze, sparks will keep arriving from elsewhere to cause new outbreaks. He added: âI think the transmission will continue to occur for some time.â
A few days ago some folks in Denver started a thing of going outside & howling into sky at 8pm every night to honor our health care providers, first responders, and essential workers. And to just connect with each other. We've joined them and it's a really interesting experience. We can hear people howling & yelling from blocks away in all directions. It's a good release. Last night some of the neighbors nearby came outside to see WTF was going on....and then joined in.
My sister-in-law and her husband and daughter live in Boulder - she told me that the howling thing is going on there as well, at least around her neighborhood.
A few days ago some folks in Denver started a thing of going outside & howling into sky at 8pm every night to honor our health care providers, first responders, and essential workers. And to just connect with each other. We've joined them and it's a really interesting experience. We can hear people howling & yelling from blocks away in all directions. It's a good release. Last night some of the neighbors nearby came outside to see WTF was going on....and then joined in.
Guy came walking down the street yesterday singing a hymn. He was good at it.
From our Switchboard Operators... "When a #COVID19 patient is being discharged or comes off the ventilator call the switchboard operator by dialing 0. The operator will play Here Comes The Sun overhead" ...And I've been hearing it ALL DAY! #TogetherWeCanhttps://t.co/8R17mBKYJSpic.twitter.com/VuUiQkZ65M
