on this note, I guess it bears thinking about what could go wrong with western strategy.
Assuming the Russian economy tanks (as it surely must), to what extent can Putin turn the narrative into a "this is a WWII type attack on the Russian people", getting them to mobilise against an incipient invasion? Would there then be enough support for some hot-heads/idiots/patriotic imbeciles to hit the nuclear option?
Seems to me there might be a need to broadcast the message to the Russian people that these economic sanctions are not aimed at them.
Fiona Hill: "We are already in the middle of a third World War, whether we’ve fully grasped it or not. Sadly, we are treading back through old historical patterns that we said that we would never permit to happen again. Those old historical patterns include Western businesses who fail to see how they help build a tyrant’s war chest, admirers enamored of an autocrat’s “strength” and politicians’ tendency to point fingers inward for political gain instead of working together for their nation’s security." (Politico)
Some truth in it I guess, but there is an enormous difference between modern-day Russia and Nazi Germany in 1939. The Russian's appear to be pretty ambivalent about this war whereas under the Nazis the entire country was pretty much electrified by the turn-around in their fortunes.
There is no way the German Wehrmacht would have stalled due to logistics problems in the middle of an initial blitzkrieg. Putin is about to realise real power lies in the ability to excite the dreams and desires of people, not his ability to oppress any dissent. On this metric, Zelenskyy is streaks ahead.
I wouldn't be surprised if we see an increasing number of unexplained logistics failures in the Russian army in the days/weeks ahead. Their hearts are just not in this war. Understandably so.
It's certainly worth reading. The gist is already in the Guardian article. What binds human societies together and make them tick is a shared set of beliefs - basically stories and legends - which might or might not be rooted in reality - he discusses religion, credit, rights, etc.
Through the China backdoor, of course. If things go really south on Putin, China might be forced into a sponsorship of sorts with Russia like it has with North Korea. Do note that while action was taken against Russia via closing down most of its access to SWIFT, trading in oil continues. The only way to stop Putin in his tracks right now would be a total embargo on Russian oil and that is not going to happen. No one has the stomach or will to do that, yet that is what would be required.
And how would we deter China from helping Putin ? Well that would require economic sanctions and possible embargoes on Chinese goods and services. Also unlikely as they, both Putin and the CCP, have created critical dependencies on their products. Let us not forget what Taiwan is in the world of semiconductors. These are both countries with real and active imperialistic postures. The world is at a crossroads. This is where appeasement has led us. The choices are pretty clear. The window of opportunity to make these choices is fast closing.
China may find itself wanting to disavow Russia, for it too has benefited enormously from the modern world order. It is not just trade with the rest of the world that it important to China, but the fact that it wants to be seen as a figurehead, a responsible global citizen, to win influence elsewhere.
Russia invaded essentially a European country
The world shuts of chips, finances, tries to destroy it's banks, oligarchs, economy, shuts off airplane travel
Meanwhile, China, has a million people in concentration camps
Treats people like slaves
Rather than sanction them - we use them as the workshop of the world, they make our products with their labor.
Interesting difference.
Next step for China is take over Taiwan, then who knows, send a bunch of invaders to any country they want.
They are re-drawing the lines of ownership in the sea, vacuuming up any resources they want, selling us everything.
They may continue to roll out their social credit system and digital ID, that is something that our elite is paving the way via the pandemic.
Nobody is stopping anything that China wants, they are our buddies. No sanctions there.
It's arguable whether the US is doing the killing, but it (previously along with other allies) is supporting its autocratic allies (SA/UAE) with their war against a neighbor. Because terrorism.
But Yemen is more like a basket case compared to a Ukrainian bread basket.
The countries were peaceful before destroyed, and very functional in many ways
And we finance and give the bombs to our coalition, we do the monitoring and planning and logistics and they are our fig leaf
It's arguable whether the US is doing the killing, but it (previously along with other allies) is supporting its autocratic allies (SA/UAE) with their war against a neighbor. Because terrorism.
But Yemen is more like a basket case compared to a Ukrainian bread basket.
Rumour alert: a government official I know said that the word in German intelligence is that Putin has cancer.
WAG (an engineering term) or simply crazy-assed theory... he has terminal cancer and prefers a quick death; he's hoping (arranging to?) be shot in in the face.
both china and russia (among others) need to rethink how they treat the people in their countries
they should be opening up immigration, business formation and honor basic human rights
allow people to create and flourish
just let them live
It is interesting - the same statements could be said about our own borders...
both china and russia (among others) need to rethink how they treat the people in their countries
they should be opening up immigration, business formation and honor basic human rights
allow people to create and flourish
just let them live
This is the horror of war; innocents dying. Putin doesn't care, he's insane.
Although USA does this in Yemen and Syria daily
This war is different because of social media. When it happens in Yemen and Syria and Iraq and Afghanistan and Iran and Mali and ...
It's different, the social media does not reach us the same...
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