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kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 2, 2022 - 6:10pm

 oldviolin wrote:

It appears the EU is an economic and political arrangement rather than a treaty charter providing for militaristic protections in the guise of peacekeeping.
 
That is my understanding, too.  I was just trying to provide an answer to the question posed.
oldviolin

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Location: esse quam videri
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Posted: Mar 2, 2022 - 6:04pm

 kurtster wrote:

If the EU country is a member of NATO, there is a problem*.  So of all the non NATO members of the EU, who is capable of undertaking such a task ?

* We all know that I am subpar in my intelligence compared to everyone else here, so my assessment is subject to your peer review and approval.
 
It appears the EU is an economic and political arrangement rather than a treaty charter providing for militaristic protections in the guise of peacekeeping.
kurtster

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Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 2, 2022 - 6:02pm

 R_P wrote:
 Red_Dragon wrote:

So, here's a thought.... Why couldn't the EU - not NATO - enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine? The EU has, collectively, an enormous air force. I'm certain someone will explain to me just how wrong this is.


Would make no difference to Russia, i.e. an escalation/interference.
 
It would make a difference in that if Russia attacked a (or any) NATO member in reprisal, then Article 5 kicks in and everyone is involved by default and design.*

* again the same caveat as mentioned in the post below will apply.
kurtster

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Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 2, 2022 - 5:59pm

 Red_Dragon wrote:
So, here's a thought.... Why couldn't the EU - not NATO - enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine? The EU has, collectively, an enormous air force. I'm certain someone will explain to me just how wrong this is.
 
If the EU country is a member of NATO, there is a problem*.  So of all the non NATO members of the EU, who is capable of undertaking such a task ?

* We all know that I am subpar in my intelligence compared to everyone else here, so my assessment is subject to your peer review and approval.



R_P

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Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 2, 2022 - 5:54pm

 Red_Dragon wrote:

So, here's a thought.... Why couldn't the EU - not NATO - enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine? The EU has, collectively, an enormous air force. I'm certain someone will explain to me just how wrong this is.


Would make no difference to Russia, i.e. an escalation/interference.

Also:
No-fly zones have been enforced in the past with great success, said Rae, pointing to the landmark effort in 1991 in the skies over northern Iraq to protect Kurds from a genocidal regime in Baghdad ruled by the dictator Saddam Hussein.

The United States, Britain and France patrolled the skies over northern Iraq, which kept Hussein's war planes on the ground and left Kurdish Peshmerga fighters to wage a ground war for the survival of their people without having to endure hellfire from above.

"It's important to remember that the successful no-fly zones have been carried out successfully because no one challenged the power of the country that was providing the air cover," said Rae.

"For example, the Kurds in northern Iraq, the no-fly zone that was put in place ... was allowed to be maintained, because it was respected by Hussein, was respected by the Russians, respected by the Chinese, respected by the Saudis, respected by everybody."

That simply is not the case today in Ukraine, said Rae.

"One has to recognize what the risks of that would be," he said.


Red_Dragon

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Location: Dumbf*ckistan


Posted: Mar 2, 2022 - 4:54pm

So, here's a thought.... Why couldn't the EU - not NATO - enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine? The EU has, collectively, an enormous air force. I'm certain someone will explain to me just how wrong this is.
kurtster

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Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 2, 2022 - 1:45pm

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
Can you two guys maybe bear in mind one of us is currently under bombardment.
I don't think she gives a shit if Biden drops a consonant or the Beatles got tired of touring the USA back in the day. 
What's at stake is worth infinitely more than your petty point-scoring on this thread, of all places.
 
OBTW, I did notice that you did not criticize VV for mocking and changing the tone of the discussion with his comments on the use of maps.  It was gratuitous and certainly unnecessary, imo.

A double standard.
NoEnzLefttoSplit

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Posted: Mar 2, 2022 - 11:25am

 kurtster wrote:

Yes you are correct. 

What I meant to say actually is that the cost of these items will and are going through the roof and shortages will occur, even in the EU.

On the oil though, just how are you going to stop using Russian hydrocarbons with the snap of a finger as you claim.  You do realize that hydrocarbons are the primary source of fertilizer and then the fuel needed for agriculture.  This can drastically drive down the grain production and yields of the EU and the costs up.  And also a large impact on available capital as agriculture ties up a lot of capital between the time of planting and harvesting.  There are no easy answers or quick fixes.

Face the facts, the EU has become too reliant on Russia for too many of its critical needs.
 
hey, have you heard of this thing called open markets? They're brilliant. Maybe you should try them in the States sometime.
kurtster

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Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 2, 2022 - 11:20am

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote: 
Yes you are correct. 

What I meant to say actually is that the cost of these items will and are going through the roof and shortages will occur, even in the EU.

On the oil though, just how are you going to stop using Russian hydrocarbons with the snap of a finger as you claim.  You do realize that hydrocarbons are the primary source of fertilizer and then the fuel needed for agriculture.  This can drastically drive down the grain production and yields of the EU and the costs up.  And also a large impact on available capital as agriculture ties up a lot of capital between the time of planting and harvesting.  There are no easy answers or quick fixes.

Face the facts, the EU has become too reliant on Russia for too many of its critical needs.
Animal-Farm

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Posted: Mar 2, 2022 - 11:12am

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:

I'd really like to know what guys like Abramovich really think about all of this. Putin must be costing them billions.



Every market has Russia as taboo, it's like instant Brexit 
NoEnzLefttoSplit

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Posted: Mar 2, 2022 - 11:07am

 Red_Dragon wrote:
 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:

The mood here in Germany is very nervous. Very few can make any sense of what Putin is actually trying to achieve. He has shot himself in the foot as far as trade with the EU goes. No one here is going to buy his gas or oil in the foreseeable future, which means he will have to sell it to China, making him very dependent on an immediate neighbour. He's just proven he gives a shit about national identity, by razing Ukrainian cities and cultural sites. So that rules out two motives that could be expected of a normal ruler: economic well-being and love of the mother country. 

It appears all he really wants is total obedience and subjugation. He's not going to find that in Ukraine. They will fight for their freedom for if they weren't a united nation before, Putin has just made them one.

And he seems to be itching for a fight with a NATO country, but knows he would lose a conventional war with NATO, which leaves the nuclear option, where we all die.

Conclusion: the guy must be insane.

Personally, I think he is one of the playground bullies that are compelled to create situations where everyone around them thinks they are arseholes. Seeking self-affirmation in rejection or something like that.



Our hope lies in someone getting close enough to put a bullet in his head. Or arsenic in his borsht.
 
I'd really like to know what guys like Abramovich really think about all of this. Putin must be costing them billions.

NoEnzLefttoSplit

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Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 2, 2022 - 11:05am

 kurtster wrote:

And how is this going to happen ?  Are you aware that Russia also provides the bulk of the EU's wheat and other grains ?  So you're going to stop eating, driving, lighting and heating with the snap of your fingers ?

You really are naive.

Russia Can Turn Food Into a Weapon in Future Crises

The Growing Importance of Russia in the Wheat Market

 

 
The EU is a net grain exporter.
NoEnzLefttoSplit

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Posted: Mar 2, 2022 - 11:04am

 rgio wrote:
 Red_Dragon wrote:
Our hope lies in someone getting close enough to put a bullet in his head. Or arsenic in his borsht.

There is also the reality that almost no one wants this fight.   I have staff in Moldova, all of whom have family in Russia / Ukraine.   Appreciating that there is a lot of misinformation out there, this is the type of stuff that is playing across the region.  Social media may be off-limits, but there is a lot of direct messaging and emailing that is sharing details. Here's a story about big losses in Ukraine by the Russians.  Interesting site for updates.   https://kyivindependent.com/national/exclusive-voice-message-reveals-russian-military-units-catastrophic-losses-in-ukraine/
 
cool, keep them coming.
kurtster

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Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 2, 2022 - 10:51am

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
The mood here in Germany is very nervous. Very few can make any sense of what Putin is actually trying to achieve. He has shot himself in the foot as far as trade with the EU goes.

No one here is going to buy his gas or oil in the foreseeable future

,
which means he will have to sell it to China, making him very dependent on an immediate neighbour. He's just proven he gives a shit about national identity, by razing Ukrainian cities and cultural sites. So that rules out two motives that could be expected of a normal ruler: economic well-being and love of the mother country. 

It appears all he really wants is total obedience and subjugation. He's not going to find that in Ukraine. They will fight for their freedom for if they weren't a united nation before, Putin has just made them one.

And he seems to be itching for a fight with a NATO country, but knows he would lose a conventional war with NATO, which leaves the nuclear option, where we all die.

Conclusion: the guy must be insane.

Personally, I think he is one of the playground bullies that are compelled to create situations where everyone around them thinks they are arseholes. Seeking self-affirmation in rejection or something like that.
 
And how is this going to happen ?  Are you aware that Russia also provides the bulk of the EU's wheat and other grains ?  So you're going to stop eating, driving, lighting and heating with the snap of your fingers ?

You really are naive.

Russia Can Turn Food Into a Weapon in Future Crises

The Growing Importance of Russia in the Wheat Market

 

rgio

rgio Avatar

Location: West Jersey
Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 2, 2022 - 10:51am

 Red_Dragon wrote:


Our hope lies in someone getting close enough to put a bullet in his head. Or arsenic in his borsht.

There is also the reality that almost no one wants this fight.   I have staff in Moldova, all of whom have family in Russia / Ukraine.  

Appreciating that there is a lot of misinformation out there, this is the type of stuff that is playing across the region.  Social media may be off-limits, but there is a lot of direct messaging and emailing that is sharing details.

Here's a story about big losses in Ukraine by the Russians.  Interesting site for updates.   https://kyivindependent.com/national/exclusive-voice-message-reveals-russian-military-units-catastrophic-losses-in-ukraine/

Red_Dragon

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Location: Dumbf*ckistan


Posted: Mar 2, 2022 - 10:39am

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:

The mood here in Germany is very nervous. Very few can make any sense of what Putin is actually trying to achieve. He has shot himself in the foot as far as trade with the EU goes. No one here is going to buy his gas or oil in the foreseeable future, which means he will have to sell it to China, making him very dependent on an immediate neighbour. He's just proven he gives a shit about national identity, by razing Ukrainian cities and cultural sites. So that rules out two motives that could be expected of a normal ruler: economic well-being and love of the mother country. 

It appears all he really wants is total obedience and subjugation. He's not going to find that in Ukraine. They will fight for their freedom for if they weren't a united nation before, Putin has just made them one.

And he seems to be itching for a fight with a NATO country, but knows he would lose a conventional war with NATO, which leaves the nuclear option, where we all die.

Conclusion: the guy must be insane.

Personally, I think he is one of the playground bullies that are compelled to create situations where everyone around them thinks they are arseholes. Seeking self-affirmation in rejection or something like that.



Our hope lies in someone getting close enough to put a bullet in his head. Or arsenic in his borsht.
kurtster

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Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 2, 2022 - 10:30am

 rgio wrote:
No alternative text description for this image Found this to be sadly, ironically, appropriate.   If you don't recognize the overlay, it's Charles Minard's visualization of Napoleon's failed attempt to take Moscow.  It's the great-great-great-grandfather of the current data visualizations now everywhere.
 

NoEnzLefttoSplit

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Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 2, 2022 - 10:26am

The mood here in Germany is very nervous. Very few can make any sense of what Putin is actually trying to achieve. He has shot himself in the foot as far as trade with the EU goes. No one here is going to buy his gas or oil in the foreseeable future, which means he will have to sell it to China, making him very dependent on an immediate neighbour. He's just proven he gives a shit about national identity, by razing Ukrainian cities and cultural sites. So that rules out two motives that could be expected of a normal ruler: economic well-being and love of the mother country. 

It appears all he really wants is total obedience and subjugation. He's not going to find that in Ukraine. They will fight for their freedom for if they weren't a united nation before, Putin has just made them one.

And he seems to be itching for a fight with a NATO country, but knows he would lose a conventional war with NATO, which leaves the nuclear option, where we all die.

Conclusion: the guy must be insane.

Personally, I think he is one of the playground bullies that are compelled to create situations where everyone around them thinks they are arseholes. Seeking self-affirmation in rejection or something like that.
kurtster

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Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 2, 2022 - 10:06am

 marko86 wrote:
https://thehill.com/homenews/a...
“I mean, he took a very tough stance against Russia. I'm surprised you don't think that he would have handled it better than Joe Biden,” Schmitt told Bolton.

“He did not,” Bolton replied. “We didn't sanction Nord Stream 2. We should have. We should have brought the project to an end. We did impose sanctions on Russian oligarchs and several others because of their sales of S-400 anti-aircraft systems to other countries. But in almost every case, the sanctions were imposed with Trump complaining about it, saying we were being too hard.”
The Trump-era national security adviser claimed the former president did not know where Ukraine was on a map and said he believed Russia did not take more aggressive actions while Trump was in office because Russia “didn’t feel that their military was ready.”
“The fact is that he barely knew where Ukraine was. He once asked John Kelly, his second chief of staff, if Finland were a part of Russia. It’s just not accurate to say that Trump's behavior somehow deterred the Russians,” Bolton said.
 
Well let's shoot some holes in your little reference shall we ?

First off, Trump did impose sanctions on Nord Stream 2 contrary to your claims.

Nord Stream 2: Trump approves sanctions on Russia gas pipeline.

and then one of the first things Biden did after killing the Keystone Pipeline was to lift or undo Trump's sanctions on Nord Stream 2

U.S. waives sanctions on Nord Stream 2 as Biden seeks to mend Europe ties

Bolton is an outright liar amongst other things and I find it very ironic that anyone from your side of the tracks gives him any credibility considering how much he was hated and held in contempt.  And there is no actual confirmation provided to back up the claim regarding John Kelly.  I have no doubt that Trump knew where Ukraine was if for no other reason than he was involved in global real estate developments.  I am sure that he knows how to use a map without being told.  The Ukrainian coastline on the Black Sea is a favorite vacation destination of many Russians including Khrushchev among others.

I have known this about Ukraine for decades just from paying attention.  Long before the article I cite below.  Well, at least since Khrushchev left power because it was one of his favorite places in retirement.

Ukraine's Black Sea coast: Russians' best-kept travel secret

Ask a group of Russians where they'll be vacationing this summer and chances are they'll all give the same answer: Ukraine.

The vast nation in the heart of Eastern Europe rarely features on the travel itineraries of many Westerners.

However, the latest figures from the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNTWO) show that Ukraine is the 12th most popular tourist destination in the world — with 20.7 million visitors in 2009.

Moving on ...

From the end of your article cited is this ...

“John Bolton was fired because he believes anything less than war is not enough. President Trump ensured peace during his administration and ended wars, making Bolton irrelevant," Budowich said.

A majority of Americans believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin would not have invaded Ukraine if Trump were still president, according to a poll released last week.

A Harvard Center for American Political Studies-Harris Poll survey last week found that 62 percent of those polled believed Putin would not be moving against Ukraine if Trump were still in office.
.
It seems that more agree with my assessment than your assessment.

marko86

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Location: North TX
Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 2, 2022 - 9:27am

 Red_Dragon wrote:


Incompetent leadership? (not Putin's) Lack of motivation/interest on the part of the air force personnel?


Been kind of wondering if some of the logistics issues they have had are actually self sabotage by those who don't want to be there attacking their brethren. 
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