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kurtster

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Location: where fear is not a virtue
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Posted: Mar 2, 2014 - 7:36pm


kurtster

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Posted: Mar 2, 2014 - 1:43pm

 DaveInVA wrote: 

She evidently learned a lot more about foreign policy by being able to see Russia from her back door than Obama did restringing basketball hoops on Chicago playgrounds ...

And yes, I don't mind Palin ... except her voice, too flippin shrill.
R_P

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Posted: Mar 2, 2014 - 7:40am

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
The anti-Russian rhetoric coming from the west is a bit rich. John Kerry seems to have conveniently forgotten that (...)
 
Add the high-minded talk about sovereignty...

Sovereignty means very little when drones enter other countries, against their wishes, and kill their civilians.
Sovereignty means little when 5 billion $ gets invested in Ukraine's opposition to "promote democracy" (or on a smaller scale in Venezuela).
Red_Dragon

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Location: Dumbf*ckistan


Posted: Mar 2, 2014 - 6:44am

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:

Telling me! It feels a bit close to home as it is.

Given the current situation, that fighting has not actually started and an uneasy truce prevails I honestly think that the only sensible way foward is to split Crimea off from the Ukraine and turn both into separate countries. This would appease Russia and the demonstrators would get what they wanted, an independent state that could move closer to Europe. As it is there is a huge risk of war and everyone losing something if not everything.

The anti-Russian rhetoric coming from the west is a bit rich. John Kerry seems to have conviently forgotten that the US marched into Iraq on less of a pretext than that facing Russia right now. The majority of the Crimea is Russian. Crimea even belonged to Russia until 1954 (well just gloss over the fact that the Soviets ethnically cleansed it before that but, hey ho).
 
Reports this morning are that large numbers of Ukrainian troops are defecting.
NoEnzLefttoSplit

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Posted: Mar 2, 2014 - 6:42am

 hobiejoe wrote:
 
Blimey. If this kind of shit was happening in the eighties we'd all be bricking ourselves.

 
Telling me! It feels a bit close to home as it is.

Given the current situation, that fighting has not actually started and an uneasy truce prevails I honestly think that the only sensible way foward is to split Crimea off from the Ukraine and turn both into separate countries. This would appease Russia and the demonstrators would get what they wanted, an independent state that could move closer to Europe. As it is there is a huge risk of war and everyone losing something if not everything.

The anti-Russian rhetoric coming from the west is a bit rich. John Kerry seems to have conviently forgotten that the US marched into Iraq on less of a pretext than that facing Russia right now. The majority of the Crimea is Russian. Crimea even belonged to Russia until 1954 (well just gloss over the fact that the Soviets ethnically cleansed it before that but, hey ho).

hobiejoe

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Posted: Mar 1, 2014 - 5:12pm

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:

  guess it's no laughing matter but still.  

My prediction: the EU and the US will do a bit of blustering about this and that and naughty naughty Putin but in the end Russia will exert its influence over the region. Putin will be a hero at home and become  in some disguise or other a benevolent (or less so) dictator of Russia, keeping tight control over any splinter groups and minorities. Over time corruption will set in, or Putin dies and the place will gradually fall apart from corruption and general ineptitude.

 
I think you're right, Putin had it away in Georgia, or what became Georgia less South Ossetia and Abkhazia, in 2008. And that was, to a greater or lesser extent, a shooting war. The lesser extent meaning it was one between two utterly mismatched opponents.
 
I imagine that the Russians must want the Crimea hugely - their Black Sea fleet is based there, and they negotiated hard to keep a presence there at the breakup of the USSR. Looks like they'll get it, because what else can Ukraine do?
 
Blimey. If this kind of shit was happening in the eighties we'd all be bricking ourselves.


katzendogs

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Posted: Mar 1, 2014 - 2:45pm

 Red_Dragon wrote: 
The comments are interesting.
 
Red_Dragon

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Location: Dumbf*ckistan


Posted: Mar 1, 2014 - 2:37pm

Battleship Potemkin!
DaveInSaoMiguel

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Posted: Mar 1, 2014 - 12:36pm

Russia moves to bring back ambassador from US, amid Ukraine crisis


NoEnzLefttoSplit

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Posted: Mar 1, 2014 - 11:02am

 RichardPrins wrote:
Social network wars...

A leader of the Ukrainian radical group Pravy Sektor (Right Sector), Dmitry Yarosh, has called on Russia’s most wanted terrorist Doku Umarov to act against Russia in an address posted on Right Sector’s page in VKontakte social network.

The statement points out that “many Ukrainians with arms in the hands” supported Chechen militants in their fight against Russians and “it is time to support Ukraine now.”

The message, signed “leader of Right Sector Dmitry Yarosh” then calls on Umarov “to activate his fight” and “take a unique chance to win” over Russia.

What's next? Calling on the (Muslim) Tatars in Crimea to start a jihad (which might get some Western cash/arms flowing)? {#Wink}

 
  guess it's no laughing matter but still.  

My prediction: the EU and the US will do a bit of blustering about this and that and naughty naughty Putin but in the end Russia will exert its influence over the region. Putin will be a hero at home and become  in some disguise or other a benevolent (or less so) dictator of Russia, keeping tight control over any splinter groups and minorities. Over time corruption will set in, or Putin dies and the place will gradually fall apart from corruption and general ineptitude.



R_P

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Posted: Mar 1, 2014 - 10:35am

Social network wars...

A leader of the Ukrainian radical group Pravy Sektor (Right Sector), Dmitry Yarosh, has called on Russia’s most wanted terrorist Doku Umarov to act against Russia in an address posted on Right Sector’s page in VKontakte social network.

The statement points out that “many Ukrainians with arms in the hands” supported Chechen militants in their fight against Russians and “it is time to support Ukraine now.”

The message, signed “leader of Right Sector Dmitry Yarosh” then calls on Umarov “to activate his fight” and “take a unique chance to win” over Russia.

What's next? Calling on the (Muslim) Tatars in Crimea to start a jihad (which might get some Western cash/arms flowing)? {#Wink}
Red_Dragon

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Posted: Mar 1, 2014 - 10:07am

...and parliament rubbers stamps it.
NoEnzLefttoSplit

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Posted: Mar 1, 2014 - 9:52am



...hmmm I wonder why the people are so pissed off and joining fascist splinter groups?
DaveInSaoMiguel

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Posted: Mar 1, 2014 - 9:52am

PALIN MOCKED IN 2008 FOR WARNING PUTIN MAY INVADE UKRAINE IF OBAMA ELECTED


And no, I don't like Palin.....
Red_Dragon

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Location: Dumbf*ckistan


Posted: Mar 1, 2014 - 9:47am

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:

Ah, beg your pardon. Yes, you are right. Though the flavors are a bit different. Ukraine, who would you buy a used car from?





 
I've never seen him smile... scary.
NoEnzLefttoSplit

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Posted: Mar 1, 2014 - 9:45am

 RichardPrins wrote:

You missed the point. The revolutionaries get to choose between Western imperialism or Russian imperialism.
 
Ah, beg your pardon. Yes, you are right. Though the flavors are a bit different. Ukraine, who would you buy a used car from?






R_P

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Posted: Mar 1, 2014 - 9:36am

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
You can hardly call the fascist elements of the protest movement imperalist, no matter how much they might like to fantasize about it.
In my experience you get right wing elements always rising when the economy falters and unemployment rises or alternatively, people don't see any future. This is ripe territory for hotheads to start finding scapegoats and the resulting "together we are strong" sentiment that is at the root of all fascism flourishes. This is as true in France or the US as it is in the Ukraine.

By this token, the best thing you can do is encourage business opportunity and international ties. This is the glimmer of opportunity that makes the EU seem so attractive to many in the protest movement.
 
You missed the point. The revolutionaries get to choose between Western imperialism or Russian imperialism. As for the rise of extremism, sure, it can be seen in various parts of Europe (esp. Greece) in response to economic malaise (which will keep repeating itself along with its own brand of corruption, i.e. the massive off-shore accounts and further financialization of economies).

And as far as Crimea goes, let's not ignore:

Sergei Aksenov, the head of the main pro-Russia party on the peninsula, said in a statement reported by local and Russian news agencies that he appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin "for assistance in guaranteeing peace and calmness on the territory of the autonomous republic of Crimea."

Aksenov declared that the armed forces, the police, the national security service and border guards will answer only to his orders. He said any commanders who don't agree should leave their posts.

And we of course know Obama wagged his finger at Putin, just before Russia responded...
NoEnzLefttoSplit

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Posted: Mar 1, 2014 - 9:23am

 RichardPrins wrote:

Which might be a clue about at least some of those revolutionaries, and especially in light of the quote your provide from the Sector Right.

"Never believe anything in politics until it has been officially denied." - Otto von Bismarck (unsourced) {#Wink}

Their choice is then between two different flavours of imperialism.

 
You can hardly call the fascist elements of the protest movement imperalist, no matter how much they might like to fantasize about it.
In my experience you get right wing elements always rising when the economy falters and unemployment rises or alternatively, people don't see any future. This is ripe territory for hotheads to start finding scapegoats and the resulting "together we are strong" sentiment that is at the root of all fascism flourishes. This is as true in France or the US as it is in the Ukraine.

By this token, the best thing you can do is encourage business opportunity and international ties. This is the glimmer of opportunity that makes the EU seem so attractive to many in the protest movement.

EDIT:
The trouble is the EU has a history of reneging on its economic promises for backward regions and all that happens is the young people wander off to more promising centers elsewhere in the Union.


Red_Dragon

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Posted: Mar 1, 2014 - 9:18am

 buzz wrote:

fyt

 
Hey, I was being all uncharacteristically optimistic and shit again - gimmie a break, will ya?
R_P

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Posted: Mar 1, 2014 - 9:15am

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
The Europeans were pushing strongly for concessions from the Maidan side of the argument that would indicate they took the interests of the Russian population seriously and protected their rights including anchoring the Russian language as a second state language. The failure of the revolutionaries to do this is a pretty big factor in the breakdown of the pact brokered by the Europeans, but was probably inevitable. Last one week one of the protestors said "Our country is fucked." Perhaps the most lucid assessment of the situation to date.
 
Which might be a clue about at least some of those revolutionaries, and especially in light of the quote your provided from the Sector Right.

"Never believe anything in politics until it has been officially denied." - Otto von Bismarck (unsourced) {#Wink}

Their choice is then between two different flavours of imperialism.
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